JOURNAL OF ADMINISTRATION AND ECONOMICS

Different countries of the world suffer from the fluctuation in the financial surplus economies, especially developing countries, including countries which their economies depend on natural resources such as oil, and this suffering comes because of the instability of the prices of those natural resources, up and down, which negatively and positively effects on the economies of those countries. This study was to shed light on the fiscal surplus of Iraqi economy, and this surplus is mainly linked to oil revenues, Iraqi economy has been affected by so much as a result of fluctuations in oil prices and security conditions and the conditions of the US occupation. The study period as the time series 2003 - 2013, and data were obtained from economic and statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Iraq, the Central Bureau of Statistics, statistics and economic bulletin for the Arab States of the Arab Monetary Fund. The data were analyzed using statistical ready-made software packages (EViews, Minitab & SPSS).

The diversification of the Iraqi sources of income has been made a necessity, especially in light of the decline in global oil prices since 2014, under the light of the continued reliance unilateral oil and financial returns in the financing of Iraqi budgets which dominated by the nature of rent-seeking, which necessitated the search for alternative sources of founding away about the dominance of oil revenues and the risk that the continued reliance on these returns without activating the rest of the other sectors of the economy to play its part in financing the Iraqi annual budgets.

The conditions and the nature of Jordan imposed special challenges related to the size of the economy, in general, and its sources of financing .The historical experiences of the economy proved that its condition attached to the status of their trading partners and financiers from the Middle East (Arab countries), as well as some countries in Asia, and the severity of the impact of the Gulf countries and Iraq is clear on this economy, as well as the impact of its geopolitical position approached the Palestinian territories and Israel, in addition to its economy affected by European countries and the US. To overcome its economic crisis, it was sought to integrate with the outside world, and pursue a policy of openness by joining the World Trade Organization, and expand its trade agreements with the European world and the US, as well as Arab countries and the countries of Asia, and to improve the ability of its economy in the positive integration through the attributes of its production capacities, as well as work to expand the capacity of its economy to improve the flow of foreign capital, and in an effort to achieve that, it worked on a strategy for foreign trade built through interdependent with the national industrial, agricultural, commercial, and scientific strategies in order to achieve these goals.

This study tackled the relationship between the changes of the crude oil prices and the rates of the economic growth during the time from 1990 to 2013, the analytical side of this study showed that there is a positive relationship between the oil sector and the economic growth in Iraq, as well as the study investigated the influences of crude oil prices changes on the economic growth rates in Iraq, and that is done by using data sample of the time series, and additional to the crude oil prices ameditator variable was selected which is the total constant capital as proportion of the total domestic products and . The estimation of the sample has been done by using ordinary least squares (OLS) method. After the investigating of the stability of time series data using Dekke - Fuller expanded (ADF), it has been shown that the study variables obviously effects the local domestic product. and the study confirms that the oil sectors is the most important sources of the total local domestic product and the largest contributor of the economic growth process. Therefore the study recommends to rehabilitate the oil institutions and the extractive and export units to improve the production and exportation commensurating with the proven oil reserves which is possessed by Iraq's standards and make every possible efforts to increase the contributions of the other sectors to support the local domestic product by raising the production efficiency of whole economic sectors and develop it by good expertise and modern technology.

Constitute the negotiating process a cornerstones key to the success of organizations and their evolution With Technical approach ، and perhaps part of this importance lies in that it provides organizations today a range of effective mechanisms that enable them to decipher the internal clashes and resolving conflicts of Foreign Affairs، as well as being the first sponsor is responsible for supplying the organization needs foreign ill whether these needs continuing such needs ( raw materials ، financial resources ، human resources ) ، or if the needs of the strategy (such as access to technology ، buy factories or buildings ، enter into alliances ) or other ، aiming organizations usually when conducting any negotiations to maintain its interests with partners and competitors and access to their needs in order to perform their work at the best possible efficiency That is conditioning With the Recruitment Of Preferring Technology . Through this study will serve researchers to deal with negotiation، according to the theory of systems ، and require the process of considering to negotiate as a system emphasizing a set of components embodied him ، being an integrated system consisting of a number of subsystems، each system which also consists of sub-systems other ، so the performance negotiating and results depend on the performance of each subsystem in it ، and the integration of sub-systems on the one hand and integration between subsystems and total system on the other hand is the basis for negotiating the effectiveness of the system . Has identified the components of the system are negotiating (bargaining) inputs ، processes ، outputs negotiating ، feedback.
as exited the study a set of conclusions represent the most important of the existence of a holistic view by the organization for the data to negotiate working from which to choose the members of the team ، timely and in accordance with the strategic vision to the subject of negotiation and seek in earnest to provide the necessary information and the right place for it.

In light of the developments in the Iraqi economy in the period after 2003, and so far, there are a lot of small and medium enterprises that are emerging to the surface and then disappear after a period of time because of the lack of clarity of the business strategy, and how to compete in the market according to a certain strategy to achieve competitive advantage and get market shares, so confusedly characterized with respect to their life cycle.
The study tuckles a fundamental problem that is how to choose a particular strategy by small and medium enterprises in light of the challenges of external and internal environment in order to control the life cycle of the project, as it helps these projects to survive as long as possible and achieve the highest returns in the competitive environment. The objective of the study was to provide quantitative indicators for decision-makers that will help in the selection of appropriate strategies based on which the action is launched small or medium-sized enterprises, as well as indicate the role of quantitative methods to choose the best strategies for the work of these projects.
The discussed this in four chapters: the first chapter addresses the scientific methodology. The second chapter has dealt with the theoretical framework of the variables of the study. The third chapter discusses strategic choice by using quantitative methods and divided into two sections addressing the first strategic choice according to the methods of decision theory, while the second made pursuant to the standards of decision theory in both cases: the uncertainty and risk. Finally, Chapter four allocated for the development of a number of conclusions and recommendations.

Many of Dealers is financial markets focus in recent year on arbitrage as one of important financial transaction that helps dealers to achieve returns without any risks. Due to this importance this study has established. Most researchers gave close attention to this subject through their attempts to analyzed arbitrage –opportunities to determined its effect on re - balance the securities prices in international markets. So, it was choosing this research entitled Role Currency Arbitrage and Its Investigation on the Financial returns The problem of the research To determine the effect of arbitrage operations, if any, in the investigation returns arising from the volatility of exchange rates in the financial markets different. The research finds out a set of conclusions. Most effect factor in arbitrage opportunities is to move in the opposite direction Currency Exchange in the financial market prices The study was presented a set of recommendations. It is very important for the investors to focus on exchange rates when they trading in international markets.

this search has shed light on the most important risks faced by any bank resulting from granted of loans and other credits, namely the risk of credit and its impacts on the profits earned from both granted loans or any other investments whatever the variety of purposes and Terms, and it was selected two international banks in Britain are HSBC (Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) and Barclays (the Banking and Financial British Corporation) and they have a long history in the field of banking business in order to give a clear picture of the most important results that can be reached by researchers through the use of indicators for each of the credit risk of bank profitability in order to illustrate the problems that can be generated from credit risk and impacts on profitability and against which targets are achieved after the search has been formulating a hypothesis to prove it, these indicators were analyzed and then tested by a test F, P-Value and impact statement by the coefficient of determination R2 using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The researchers concluded that there is a significant effect of credit risk indicators on profitability and on which was rejected null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
The most important thing recommended by the researchers is the need to review policies adopted by the bank Barclays compared with HSBC to give him credit because of the high amount of non-performing loans has compared to the other would be eligible to big problems on the level of funding in the case of pull-and-so and its impact on the amount of profit earned them.

The purpose of the search is to establish an intellectual vision of organizational immune system in preparation to build a measure of organizational immune system which will reveal the capacity of immune and immune forms of immune function that includes five repeated behaviors are the (perception) and (defence) and (memory) and (balance) and (Control), aims at building scale to detect system components, functions and properties in order to derive the key dimensions and the construction scale, the importance of research is to enable organizations to overcome random redirect immunity Regulators against the external and internal intruders behaviors that disturb the stability of the Organization's systems, as well as will efforts of departments to recognize the importance of organizational immune system in maintaining the balance of the Organization through the operational behaviors and resistance performance anomalies and their effects as well as give the Organization the ability to stave off dangers already Adaptive internal or external.
Research has reached at build a vision of intellectual contributions to philosophy extolled the system and build a scale consisted of (54) paragraph covered all the main and secondary dimensions.

This study seeks to show the impact of customer relationship management in the bank's financial performance. The study has conducted on governmental banks' sector in Iraq. The problem of the study appears in finding the answers to the next questions: Do the Iraqi governmental banks need to realize the importance of customer relationship management in promoting the financial banking performance? The main purpose of the study was knowing the impact of customer relationship management in the financial performance in the bank. To achieve this goal, the opinions of the study sample was analysis which represented on sample of the customers, directors and heads of departments and degree holders on Al-Rafiddain and Al-Rasheid in both agricultural and industrial branch in Iraq, by 30 person, 15 officer and 15 customers to every bank. The total sample 120 persons in addition to use the quantitative aspect through measure the money and the profit rate and the capital adequacy.

The research aims to identify the organizational justice and organizational commitment in al-Mustansiriya University in Iraq and determine the nature of the correlation between the two variables in the surveyed university, find out effect between them to achieve the goal of the research, it was used in this research descriptive analytical method, and consists of the study population of the administrative personnel and technicians in the surveyed university , where the number of those surveyed (88) administrative staff, was the identification of the study design based on previous studies that have linked to the subject of study, has been the use of a comprehensive survey of a sample study where was recovered (70) questionnaire by recovery (76.1%) were excluded (3) questionnaires because they are invalid and thus was adopted (67) FORM questionnaire in the analysis, and using some statistical methods (mean, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient, and regression coefficient),
The most important conclusions One was the presence of correlation and impact between the dimensions of organizational justice and the dimensions of organizational commitment and to varying degrees and the research found on the grounds of justice regulatory of the important variables in the increase organizational commitment of the sample ratios.

The exchange rates risk is one the most important of risks facing importers and exporters goods companies, to encounter these risk, it has to use one of the instruments tools for risk managements .In according to that this study show the nature and use of option contract to protect exchange rate fluctuation of currency in turn decreases the losses resulting from that. This research has two hypotheses: -use of currency call options contract for buying currency by commodities importing lead to decrease exchange rate risk which pays it purchases costs.
-use of currency put options contract for selling currency by commodities exporting leads to decrease exchange rate risk for currency which could caught sells price . This study has been drawn set of conclusions ,included :
- The use of currency options contracts by importers and exporters of goods allows them to hedge the risk of currency exchange rates, and the same time enable them to take advantage of fluctuations in currency exchange rates which are in their favor.
- The use of contracts for the option to buy the currency by importers of goods leads to a reduction in the risk of higher prices of dollar by installing the exchange rate of the pound in the future, and made time lead to the achievement of profit is limited at the lower exchange rates of the dollar for the execution price at .maturity
-The use of option contracts for the sale of the currency by exporter of goods leads to a reduction in the risk of lower exchange rates of the dollar for ways to install the dollar exchange rates in the future, and the same time lead to the achievement of profit is limited at higher exchange rates for the dollar price at the date of execution maturity.

The re-engineering is regarded as one of the best management techniques in contemporary management thought where stem importance of it works dramatically and may reach optimization level of cost, time, quality and service to ten times higher than in some other development programs, so that it adopts a re basic thinking in processes, organizational structure and information technology the content of the job and the work flow so as to achieve tangible improvements in productivity. Because of the problems suffered by the Cost Accounting in the General Company for vegetable oils system so the use of the implementation phases of re-engineering the cost accounting to address the problems that the system suffered for the purpose of reaching a competitive advantage by delivering customer service desire in terms of prices and determine the true costs of the products for the purpose of accessing system to target cost which they can achieve cost that achieves the best profit target for the company level.

The fraud and manipulation in the financial statements is regarded as one of the important topics in the field of the accounting profession, the auditing, and led to a financial crisis, and the proliferation of scandals and blighter in major international companies, in addition to that the big number of cases the courts and collect decide until now, seek search to identify on method lead to monitoring the performance on the external auditor so limit from method accounting manipulation, as the forensic accounting look beyond the numbers to reveal the facts and allegations ,through form to identify the concept of fraud manipulation ,and the concept of forensic accounting , hypothesis was tested through use questionnaire from distributed on the set of samples from users of accounting in formation, and use factor analysis to notice the importance of forensic accounting method ,and which is more important in the application , have concluded results find the existence of cases of fraud ,and manipulation operations in the financial statement ,and the most important recommendations need necessity designation forensic accountant

The crucial competition in Business environment leads the economical units to look for the procedures that could their Keep position in competition Market. Amony the best technique that could be depended on is the cost Series Analyses which represent the focus in this research. It tackles the presentation and analysis of this technique "Cost Series" and showing its role in managing and reducing the cost to reinforce the possibilities of the economical unit and showing the useful as well as useless activities. The research also shows partial analyses relater to an industrial activity showing the reasons behind the height costs. It also clarifies the effect of Cost Series Analyses on reinforcing the possibilities of the economical Units, ammeter that helps reduce the Costs that do not add anything to the real one. The research introduces a thorough analysis "quantitative and descriptive one" for some of these activities in Baghdad
Co. for Soft Drinks. It sheds light on the rise in the Unit cost duo to the absence of support from Governmental Units.

The intellectual capital has been characterized as an intangible thing that makes it difficult to apply the theories and the foundations accounting upon it , and based on that individuals in the organization is the source of wealth.
The research has pointed to the problem of the intellectual capital and its elements and evaluate the form to achieve the efficient functioning of the human element.
The research has used a model form for the purposes of accessing the intellectual capital of the organization to give the lead to the style of measuring and evaluating the intellectual capital to reach a conclusion The Quantitative dimension of capital in not considered a critical element in the evaluation of an organization and marking superiority and thus need to this model.

IGARCH model study is one of the recent studies in the field of time series, and that the most important characteristic of these models to both conditional mean and conditional variance depends on the past. And most of these studies used two distributions Poisson and the negative binomial.
In our research, we suggest binomial distribution. And then study the distribution proposed theoretically, empirically and practically. Thus the goal of the research is to study the time series when observations are integer values and follows the time series of GARCH model in discrete distributions.
The results of the experimental side in binomial distribution was good for this model compared with the normal distribution.
In practical side examined one time series data, application are real data represents the number of twins weekly Ebin - Albaladi hospital obstetrics and Gynecology and data following binomial distribution and also suffers from the problem of heteroscedasticity of the conditional variance of error, and remove the influence problem matching IGARCG(1,1)model.

This research aims to study the simulation to estimate parameter of the Rasch model categorical data as the difficulty parameter of item on intelligence tests and track the impact of (the estimated parameter, volumes samples) by the mean Square errors (MSE), and The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) parameter model estimated by the conditional of Maximum likelihood estimation method.
The main conclusions of the research are: that the average potential of the values of the difficulty parameter of individuals in response to the items and the dividend and for all sizes of the samples are negative and positive, and the MSE values of the difficulty parameter of the items are for regular distribution of less than MSE values of normal distribution, and the MSE values of normal distribution be less of MSE for the distribution of beta values, Whatever the estimated parameter is negative or positive signal.

Nonparametric regression technique represents a different way in regression analysis of parametric regression technique, but it does not mean that the use of one method prevent the use of the other. The methods of nonparametric regression can be used to assess the legality of supposed nonparametric model and vice versa, and matching the form of regression curve that we have it from nonparametric regression techniques may suggests the appropriate parametric regression model to be used in future studies.
The research contains the use of Robust Kernel Smoothing to estimate a nonparametric regression model, in order to get that we depends on the results of a simulation study that described in experimental side. The comparison was made between the functions that were used in smoothing by using (MAE) and (MSE) criteria to reach the best estimator that represents the data that generated by simulation.

For some systems applied on computer like ( inventory system) there is a need for an automatic forecasting system ( exclucling humens effect) that is because there are large numbers of items needs to forecast their demands .
So there is an expectation that some problems will happened during demand forecasting of these items .
In this paper an automatic adaptive compound forecasting system has been constructed and the results has been compared with exponential smoothing methods and it gives a better results than the exponential smoothing method

Total Quality Management (TQM) is the integrated management that aims at continuous improvement of the performance products, processes and services to achieve and exceed customer expectations. The study aimed to determine the effect of Top management commitment to the successful implementation of total quality management requirements in service organizations and build a conceptual framework and practical model can be used as a guide in the formulation of an effective approach appointed Top- management in service organizations on the successful implementation of total quality management. Adopted study Warwick Hotel Babylon International, one of the five-star hotels model. The study sample was composed of three operating in the administrative levels of the hotel staff: Top management, middle management, direct management. To verify the study hypotheses, the use of a questionnaire was included eighteen variable measures and reveals the extent of the application of total quality management using the five-Likert scale, and factor analysis method for statistical results. Which showed that Top management’s commitment to a crucial and vital role in the process of implementation of total quality management in service organizations requirements? The results of the factor analysis showed the answers to the study sample a disparity in the rates of contribution administration in applied to the requirements of Total Quality Management.

The study aims to achieve a number of goals such as what justifications that drive modern hotel departments to adopt a total quality standards and mechanisms in the delivery service as well as highlight the most prominent requirements that requires secure hotel management in order to achieve successful adoption of total quality management approach, including a statement of your actual working environment hotel and hotel organizations understanding the fact justifications and requirements needed by those departments. The researchers reached several conclusions from them that there are many false ideas and opinions on the principle of total quality management and it is due to the lack of full understanding by departments and various organizations to the fact that the curriculum that stands behind the success of the international organizations in the labor market and achieve advanced levels of performance. as well, not addressing the theme of total quality management on caterers Iraq enough and lacked basic literacy field studies for Iraqi hotels which means total quality management principles in particular sides of the rationale and requirements for this course in the hotel industry. Therefore they recommended that the new perception is thrown to develop input and output operations and the hospitality industry, so the idea the Visual cohesion and complementarity and potential applied effectively. And economic and social realities of Iraq imposes on bodies and institutions responsible for the hotel industry focus on building the administrative business models and the Executive and legislature capable of absorbing scientific and technological information, through the introduction of contemporary trends. You can fix the problems and difficulties and obstacles, shortcomings that hinder the process of development in the hotel sector of Iraq by applying total quality management portal because it elesticity and long range strategic planning and coverage to achieve continuous improvement in the development of the individual's performance and improve the quality of hotel services.