Iraqi Journal For Economic Sciences

This research aims to determine the effects of the internal nature of the money supply variable on the effectiveness of monetary policy, since the fact that the money supply is an internal variable requires the monetary authorities to avoid the failure of monetary policy management by targeting the monetary aggregates, and adopting the short-term interest rate tool and the exchange rate as important tools for managing monetary policy. The research also aims to limit the overall effects of the relationship between internal changes in the money supply and changes in the main macroeconomic variables (especially output) on managing monetary policy and overall economic activity, stimulating economic growth and ensuring the achievement of economic stability policies, in a manner that shows the real role of the internal theory of money supply in total economy. The results that have been reached lead to accepting the research hypothesis, because the effect of the internal money supply is not limited to creating an incentive for investment, and making aggregate demand a major factor for creating production only, but rather its effects avoiding the harmful effects of lower prices resulting from the growth of productivity assuming the stability of demand. The effect of income (GDP) on the money supply is much greater than the effect of money supply on income. This means that economic activity has the greatest impact on determining the internalization of the money supply in the Nigerian economy, even though monetary policy measures, through the short-term interest rate, affect to a certain degree in determining the money supply, which makes the variable GDP the basis of Nigeria's money supply.
Internal Money Supply, Output, Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy, Central Bank.

the military spending is the focus of the followers of the political and economic followers of the world is witnessing a great acceleration in the increase in military expenditures and opportunities to achieve progress in economic and human development, As military spending is an obstacle to achieving progress in civil activities, especially in developing countries in general and Iraq in particular for Iraq's importance internally and externally, Hence, Military spending also has poor effects on economic and social variable, this study is based on a basic assumption that the increase in military spending has a negative impact on the development process, Military spending has been a major economic cost through its depletion of large economic resources in addition to having a significant impact on the development process in Iraq, The research considers it necessary to allocate part of the military expenditure to serve the civil sector by involving the army in investment and active participation in the development of all sectors.

The research aims to build a suitable model for forecasting in the data of the Iraqi economy based on the State Space Model (SSM) with the exponential smoothing methodology. Therefore, two types of prediction methods were addressed, namely, the traditional exponential smoothing methods and the exponential smoothing under State Space Models, which laid its foundation (Hyndman, et al, 2002). The Time Series Automatic Forecast algorithm, which was suggested by Hyndman & Khandakar, 2008, was used as one of the useful statistical tools in forecasting.
On the practical side, the time series that represents the annual production index of livestock in Iraq was used, and it includes meat and milk from all sources, and dairy products such as cheese, eggs, honey, raw silk, wool and leather. And then the comparison between the two methods in estimating efficiency using the two criteria (AIC, BIC), and the comparison in the efficiency of predictive performance using standards (RMSE, MAP, MAPE, MASE), within and outside the sample for the method and the model using prediction accuracy measures. Where the time series was broken up and then forecasted outside the training group that constituted 80% of the observations and compared with the test group values. It was concluded that the simple exponential smoothing model with multiplying errors ETS (M, N, N) was the most efficient in estimating and the simple exponential smoothing method (N, N) was the most efficient in performing the prediction. The two researchers recommended that the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation should approve the results that were reached in order to formulate a policy for livestock in Iraq.

Preserving the integrity of the environment is a comprehensive goal for all of humanity, even though it is among its most important economic features, but the environmental milieu are incubators that cannot be dispensed with or replaced with others, hence the need to address the study of the side effects of human activity on its data, which are exposed as a result of the absence the environmental awareness of the two phenomena of pollution, which makes them lose their usefulness for use, and the erosion that will lead at some point to depletion, and in imminent danger to the future of global economic growth, and then to the well-being of man and his ability to create media suitable for his multiple and renewable needs. On these intellectual approaches, our research focused on which we used statistical methods to measure the relationship between the growth of GDP in Iraq and the size of hydrocarbon emissions.

Primary schools are the basis of education in Iraq and the rest of the world, and primary education is a basic and important part of investment in human capital, which has become a prerequisite for the transition from the traditional economy to the modern economy. However, public education in Iraq has witnessed a remarkable decline after 2003, as the education infrastructure retreated and schools became insufficient to receive the increasing number of students, and a large part of the schools were destroyed due to wars and conflicts, as well as the decrease in investment spending by the government on building Public schools due to the budget deficit caused by the drop in oil prices. This is the research problem, and in order to address this problem, the research started from the hypothesis (the possibility of private primary education alongside government education in Iraq in general and Baghdad in particular, an important role in raising the scientific and educational level, provided that it is in accordance with the instructions and supervision of the Ministry of Education, and this requires a feasibility study. For special education schools).
A number of conclusions have been reached, the most important of which is the validity of the hypothesis from which the research was launched, which is that (through the economic feasibility study that showed the possibility of establishing private primary schools alongside government schools because of their potential to raise the scientific level), and the recommendation was made (to establish the competent authorities expand the door to invest in private schools and provide all facilities to investors and cancel taxes on private schools because of their negative impact on students in bearing additional costs).

The services gap is represented by the difference between the productive capacity of the third sector’s personalities and the size of the social demand for its outputs, which has been expanding continuously over four continuous decades of time until its results are evident in two forms:
The first: Failure to reach the level of economic well-being that the human community had, even in its late years.
The second: the slowdown in economic growth rates, the decline of the sources of its generation, and their almost complete limitation to the rentier sector. Hence the importance of studying the reality of this gap and ways to address it based on the premise that it is impossible to build the productive apparatus without solid anchor structures that guarantee the necessary inputs for its sustainability and development, and our desire to expand the angle of view and provide a more comprehensive space for subsequent logical conclusions must be used to study the main development experiences to find the confirmations that support our vision, which we have simplified according to the following structural pattern:
The first section: the absorptive capacity of the existing infrastructure signs and the actual need for their service outputs.
The second section: the deferred payment mechanism and its developmental imperatives in the Iraqi economy.
The third section: an analytical reading of the government credit-pay document and its investment ranges.
The most important conclusions that we have available are the possibility of widening the gap between the actual need for the outputs of the infrastructure and the actual production of them, if dealing with the dilemma of its construction continues in accordance with the current traditional contexts, it is like a medical prescription that cannot tolerate delaying some of its vocabulary and fulfilling others, or a slowdown in Provided where the cure of ailments does not meet its evasive necessities and indecision.