Journal of Petroleum Research & Studies

1

Neural Network for Porosity Prediction in Carbonate Formation: A Case Study of the South of Iraq

Huda F. Al-Saad, Safa J. Al-Kamil, Mohammed S. Al-Radhi, Najm A. Fadhih

Pages: 1-18 English

Abstract

This study presents the application of a Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq) recurrent neural network for estimating porosity log data by leveraging information from other logs. The effectiveness of this technique in simulating porosity for heterogeneous reservoirs is demonstrated by employing data from the Yamama Formation in the Faihaa Oil field in southern Iraq. Four wells in the field were used for the model training and evaluation, where input data comprised density, neutron, gamma-ray, and porosity logs. The model's performance was assessed using absolute percentage, and root means squared errors, and the results were compared against actual data, revealing a significant correlation. These results establish the Seq2Seq recurrent neural network model as a superior option for predicting reservoir porosity from other good log data. They could have practical implications in estimating porosity for petroleum calculations.

Keywords

carbonates formation LSTM Neural Network Porosity prediction Seq2Seq south of Iraq.

Abstract

تقدم هذه الدراسة تطبيق شبكة عصبية متكررة من التسلسل إلى التسلسل (Seq2Seq) لتقدير بيانات سجل المسامية من خلال الاستفادة من المعلومات من السجلات الأخرى. تم توضيح فعالية هذه التقنية في محاكاة المسامية للخزانات غير المتجانسة من خلال استخدام البيانات من تكوين اليمامة في حقل الفيحاء للنفط في جنوب العراق. تم استخدام أربعة آبار في الحقل للتدريب والتقييم، حيث تضمنت بيانات الإدخال سجلات الكثافة والنيوترون وأشعة جاما والمسامية. تم تقييم أداء النموذج باستخدام النسبة المئوية المطلقة، ومتوسطات الجذر التربيعي للأخطاء، وقورنت النتائج بالبيانات الفعلية، مما كشف عن وجود ارتباط معنوي. تؤسس هذه النتائج نموذج الشبكة العصبية المتكررة Seq2Seq كخيار أفضل للتنبؤ بمسامية الخزان من بيانات السجل الجيدة الأخرى. يمكن أن يكون لها آثار عملية في تقدير المسامية لحسابات البترول.

2

Petrography and Geochemistry of Zubair Shale Formation in Rumaila Oilfield, Southern Iraq: Implications for Provenance and Tectonic Setting

Rana Abbas Ali

Pages: 19-40 English

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Abstract

A detailed sequential analysis which included thin section petrography, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray fluorescence was applied to investigate the mineral, chemical classifications, provenance, paleo-weathering, paleoclimate, and maturity features of such Zubair oil shale in the Rumaila oilfield in southern Iraq. In core samples and thin sections, the analyzed shales are primarily silty, flaky to subflaky, micaceous, calcareous, well-sorted, poorly cemented, and weakly to moderately compacted silt-grade sandy mudstone. According to XRD analysis, the main mineral is quartz, which is followed by kaolinite, while calcite and dolomite are less common and Illite, Illite/smectite, and pyrite are rarely abundant. Petrographic analysis of the Zubair shales revealed four lithofacies: silty clayey laminated mudstone lithofacies, mica-rich mudstone lithofacies, clay-rich siliceous mudstone lithofacies, and clay-bearing calcareous mudstone lithofacies. Major and trace element concentrations reveal that the oil shales have been formed from felsic rocks such as granodiorite, tonalite, and granite. A passive margin setting was revealed by the tectonic discrimination diagram. Weathering index values like the (CIA) chemical index of alteration, the (PIA) plagioclase index of alteration, and the (CIW) chemical index of weathering imply extensive chemical weathering in the source area. Zubair shales' K2O/Na2O ratio and (ICV) index of compositional variation are uniform with their high maturity. The compositions of mineral and trace elemental ratios, as well as the climatic index "C," indicate a warm to humid subtropical climate with deposition in a shallow oxic and dysoxic environment.

Keywords

Paleo-weathering Paleoclimate Provenance Tectonic setting Zubair shales

3

The Effect of Micro and Nona Silica Addition on the Filtration and Mud Cake of Drilling Fluid

Amel Habeeb Assi

Pages: 41-58 English

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Abstract

The selection of suitable materials as components of the drilling fluid remains the primary concern of the mud engineer. Micro and nanomaterials represent dense and effective complementary additives to the drilling fluid. In this paper, both micro silica and Nano silica were used in order to find the effect of each on the properties of drilling fluid in general and filtration in particular. Where the results showed that each of them has an effective and different role in improving the properties of drilling fluids in general and filtration in particular. although they are one material, but nanotechnology has contributed to making Nano-silica more efficient and effective than micro-silica. Both materials reduce the permeability of the mud cake and reduce the volume of the filtrate, as well as increase the viscosity, yield point and gel strength. As for density and acidity, fine silica had the biggest effect. Where it can be used as a heavy material, as well as the effect of adding micro silica on the PH value has been studied, as the results prove that the proportion is direct. As for Nano silica, it did not have a significant effect on the density or the pH. The results showed that Nano-silica is the most efficient for reducing filtration, followed by CMC, then PAC, then micro-silica It was found that if the percentage of addition was 25%, the filter volume value is as follows: 0.5 cc for Nano silica, 1.9 cc for CMC, 2 cc for PAC and 3 cc for micro silica. The addition of Nano-silica gave a cohesive clay cake with a permeability of 1.84, five times lower than what was provided by PAC for a 25% addition ratio.

Keywords

Bentonite drilling fluid filtration Micro Mud cake Nano Rheology

4

Detection of Over Normal Pore Pressure Intervals by Using Well Logs

Jassim M. Al Said Naji, Ghassan H. Abdul-Majeed, Ali K. Alhuraishawy, Ameer Talib

Pages: 59-73 English

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Abstract

Pore pressure is very important parameter that impacting on drilling, production planning and operations. Drilling and production processes cannot be beginning if pore pressure is not estimated. There is a limit of difference between hydrostatic pressure of mud column and pore pressure during drilling to ensure that the layers are preserved from fracturing, as well as that kicking does not occur inside the well. Difference between pore pressure and bottom hole flowing pressure is a key for production process. Over (Abnormal) pressure intervals are causing many problems during drilling. In present study, pore pressure is estimated firstly as a hydrostatic pressure, and secondly, after determination of shale flag, two methods of Eaton slowness and Bowers original are used for detecting of over (Abnormal) pressure shale intervals. Compressional and density logs of three wells (X3, X4, and XD) located at Y oil field and producing from Asmari formation are used to perform the present study. Density log is linearly extrapolated to estimate bulk density from zero depth to last depth point at reservoir. Vertical stress is predicted for these three wells. The vertical stress gradients were 1.03, 0.99, and 0.93 psi/ft for XD, X3, and X4 wells respectively. Results are reveals that Bowers original better than Eaton slowness in detection of over (abnormal) pressure intervals where the last did not cut all shale intervals by compressional slowness shale base line that equal to 80 us/ft so, Eaton slowness method provided either very high over pressure in some shale intervals or subnormal pressure to other shale intervals and that inaccurate while Bowers original method approximately provided all shale intervals as over pressure in reasonable values. Modular dynamic tester measurements for pore pressure of these three wells are used for calibration. Maximum percent error between predicted and measured pore pressure of wells (X3, X4, and XD) are 1.2%, 0.89% and 3% respectively where these percent are very acceptable. Maximum over pressure values in Asmari formation zones at wells are as follows: 6328 psi at depth 3225 m in well X3, 7538 psi at depth 3080 m in well X4, and 6731 psi at true vertical depth 3067 m in well XD.

Keywords

Bowers original Eaton slowness pore pressure Shale flag Vertical stress

5

Effect of Calcination Temperature on Prepared γ-Al2O3 as Support Catalyst

Helal A. Saleem, Ban A. Al-Tabbakh, Aysar T. Jarullah

Pages: 74-90 English

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Abstract

The effect of calcination temperature on the surface properties of gamma alumina was investigated in this study, which is used as a support for multiple metal-loaded catalysts. The Sol-gel technique was used to create -Al2O3 support from aluminum nitrate as a precursor at various calcination temperatures (500, 550, 600, and 650°C). Then, for each sample, characterization tests such as X-Ray fluorescence (XRF), X-Ray diffraction (XRD), Thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), and surface area (BET) are performed to determine the optimal calcination temperature to produce highly active composite catalyst support. It has been discovered that samples calcined at 600 and 650°C have very similar properties in terms of mechanical strength, thermal stability, crystallinity, high purity, and surface properties or morphology. However, the surface area and pore volume of 600°C are thought to be superior to those of 650°C.

Keywords

Alumina Composite catalyst Calcination Temperature Precipitation

6

Optimization for Kinetic Model of Oxidative Desulfurization of Sour Naphtha Over a Natural Base Zeolite Catalyst in a Three Phase Oscillatory Baffled Reactor

Hassan M. Hmood, Saba A. Gheni, Safaa. M.R. Ahmed, Mohammed H. Mohammed

Pages: 91-111 English

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Abstract

The oxidative desulfurization (ODS) of Iraqi sour naphtha was studied in a novel design of a heterogeneous catalytic reactor. Molecular oxygen was used as an oxidizing agent and a clay-based zeolite was used as a catalyst. The present work of ODS was conducted in a three-phase oscillatory baffled reactor under different operating conditions; temperature =25, 35, 45, and 55°C, residence times (1 – 14 min), Reynold number of oscillation (175, 235, 315), and net flow Reynolds number (25, 50, 75). A zeolitic base ODS catalyst was prepared and applied as a heterogeneous catalyst in the OBR unit. The aim of this study is to obtain the ODS kinetic parameters and concentration profile of the sulfur compounds in the naphtha cut. The model developed was based on the properties of the feedstock, characteristics of the catalyst, and operation conditions inside the OBR according to the experimental observations. To obtain the kinetic model parameters mass transfer and flow conditions were applied in the model network. The equations were employed in gPROMS software to simulate the experimental results of sulfur concentration remaining after completion of the ODS process. The set of equations was successful in simulating the experimental results with a 5% absolute error. The predicted data were used for optimizing the kinetic parameters to get the ODS kinetic parameters based on minimizing sulfur concentration.

Keywords

Optimization oscillatory baffled reactor Oxidative Desulfurization three-phase

7

Estimation the Remaining Life for Reformer Unit Tubes Furnace Operated Beyond the Design Life

Husam A. Al-Warmizyari

Pages: 112-125 English

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Abstract

The aim of this work is to study and model creep damage accumulation for remaining safe working life estimation of tube material used in petroleum industry plants operated at a high temperature for long time beyond the design life. Material constants and other data required for life estimation were extracted from the output results of real accelerated creep rupture tests conducted at three test temperatures (700, 725, and 750(oC and at three constant stress applications (120, 130, and 140 MPa). Also, a time-temperature parameter method (Larson-Miller Method) was modified to be applied based on the results of the accelerated creep rupture tests to build life predicted master curve for austenitic stainless steel type 321H. It is found that creep rupture time for stainless steel alloy decreases as temperature or stress increase. Also, it distinguished from the creep curves for the serviced stainless steel alloy, that the onset of tertiary creep stage starts early (about 50% of creep curve), this reflects the reduction in creep strength of the alloy as a result of the degradation in alloy properties that take place during the service life. It is also found that the estimated remaining working life for the serviced tube samples made from austenitic stainless steel type 321H is about (54703 hr) based on the calculated stress level (40 MPa) and service temperature 570 oC. The difference between the estimated remaining life and the experimental creep test life is due to the differences between the applied stresses, where higher level of stresses in the experimental creep testes are used to accelerate failure of specimens. The application for the result of this work can be the petroleum industries that where heaters tubes serviced at such industry need to be estimated for the remaining life after the design life expire.

Keywords

austenitic stainless steel creep life Larson-Miler parameter. remaining life tube furnace

Abstract

الهدف من هذا العمل هو دراسة نموذج لتراكم ضرر ظاهرة الزحف لغرض تقدير العمر الامن المتبقي لمواد انابيب تستخدم في وحدات الصناعة النفطية والتي تعمل منها بدرجات حرارة عالية ولفترة طويلة الى ما بعد العمر التصميمي. ثوابت المواد والبيانات الاخرى المطلوبة لتخمين العمر المتبقي تم استخراجها من النتائج التي تم الحصول عليها من اختبارات حقيقية للزحف بظروف معجلة تم اجرائها بثلاث درجات حرارة (700، 725، 750)°م، وبتطبيق ثلاث قيم للاجهادات الثابتة خلال كل اختبار وهي (120، 130، (140 ميكاباسكال. كذلك تم تطوير طريقة معاملات الزمن-حرارة والتي يطلق عليها بطريقة لارسن-ميلر وتطبيقها باستخدام نتائج اختبارات كسر الزحف المعجلة لبناء المخطط الرئيسي لتخمين العمر لسبيكة الفولاذ المقاوم للصدا الاوستنايتي من النوع 321H. من خلال البحث وجد ان سبيكة الفولاذ المقاوم للصدأ اظهرت نقصان الزمن اللازم للكسر الناتج عن الزحف عند زيادة درجة الحرارة او الحمل المسلط. كذلك يمكن تمييز ان بداية المرحلة الثالثة في منحنيات الزحف لسبيكة الفولاذ المقاوم للصدأ والتي كانت في الخدمة قد ظهرت بمرحلة مبكرة (تقريباً 50% من منحني الزحف)، وهذا يعكس النقصان الحاصل في مقاومة الزحف للسبائك كنتيجة للاضمحلال في خصائص تلك السبائك والحاصل خلال فترة عمر الاشتغال. كذلك وجد ان العمر المتبقي التخميني لعينات سبائك الفولاذ المقاوم للصدأ هي (54703 ساعة) عندما يكون الاجهاد المسلط بحدود (40 ميكاباسكال). ان الفرق بين العمر التخميني المتبقي و العمر الناتج عن اجراء اختبار الزحف ناتج عن الفرق في الاجهاد المسلط، حيث تم استخدام اجهادات بمستوى اعلى في اختبارات الزحف لغرض تعجيل الفشل في عينات الاختبار. يمكن تطبيق نتائج البحث في الصناعة النفطية على انابيب الافران الحرارية التي تحتاج الى تقدير العمر التشغيلي المتبقي بعد انتهاء العمر التصميمي.

8

Mordenite-Type Zeolite from Iraq Sand: Synthesis and Characterization

Abdulla M. Ahmed, Aysar T. Jarullah, Hala M. Hussein, A. N. Ahmed

Pages: 126-142

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Abstract

Mordenite's excellent physical and chemical qualities set it apart from other zeolites with similar applications in industry. Mordenite is frequently produced through hydrothermal processing with TEA+ cations. The best template agent is TEA+ cations, despite the fact that they may lead to a variety of problems, such as the release of toxicity, the high cost of production, the contamination of wastewater, and environmental damage. So, it's important to develop a mordenite synthesis technique that doesn't need an organic template or a cheap template. The mordenite-type zeolites were prepared using sand from the western part of Iraq (Ar-Rutbah). Silica was extracted from Iraqi sand as a silica source and sodium aluminate as a source of alumina Al by using the SOL-GEL method through the hydrothermal technique at temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 °C over a period of 7 days. Analyses such as XRD, BET surface area AFM, FT-IR, and FE-SEM were performed on the sample. The average particle size was 31.9 nm, and the BET surface area was 202.487. XRF detected the ratio of silica to alumina (Si/Al = 4.55), and the exchange of sodium ions for hydrogen ions through ionic exchange is 100%. The micrograph clearly reveals a tiny portion of the crystal band with a flaky habit, while FE-SEM images of synthesized H-MOR show that plates form the majority of the crystals.

Keywords

Zeolite; Nano silica; raw material; mordenite

9

Corrosion in Crude Oil Distillation Units (CDUs) and a Study of Reducing Its Rates by Changing Chemical Injection Sites

Samer N. Shattab, Wissam S. Khudair, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Majid A. Kahthim

Pages: 143-161 English

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Abstract

The injection of chemicals is one of the most important treatment steps used to reduce the effect of corrosion factors in crude oil distillation units in oil refineries. As a result of the availability of suitable conditions for the formation of the main corrosion agents, namely acids (HCI, H2S). It has become necessary to neutralize the effect of these factors in distillation units and towers by changing the sites of adding chemicals, where oil refineries use anti_ corrosion film and caustic soda (NaOH) as well as neutral amine to control and limit the effect of chloride ion, iron rates, salts and the (PH) values.
As a result, the research paper is interested in developing a study of adding and changing chemical injection areas (points) of adding chemicals, especially (caustic soda and neutralizer amine) at different specific points, and as it is well known, crude oil passes through a number of different heat exchangers to raise its temperature in preparation for refining. It was found that changing the addition of the neutral amine in the striper tower area of the kerosene section (drops that are returned to the main refinery tower) has a significant effect in controlling the stabilization of pH values between (5.5-6.5) and reducing the iron ion concentration at a rate of (1% ppm), While the injection of caustic soda depends on the temperatures of the crude oil, so it is changed into two lines. The first is before the heat exchangers, that is, when the temperature of the crude oil is (20-35) c̊, and the second line is after the crude oil reaches the temperature (65-90) c̊, it has a significant effect in reducing the concentration of the chloride ion at a rate of (1-5 ppm) present in the form of chloride salts dissolved in the crude oil.

Keywords

Chemical injection points in refining units Control of (PH). control of corrosion Corrosion in distillation towers injection of chemical treatments

Abstract

يعد حقن المواد الكيمياوية واحد من اهم خطوات المعالجة المستخدمة للحد من تأثير عوامل التأكل في وحدات تقطير النفط الخام في المصافي النفطية. ونتيجة لتوافر الظروف المناسبة لتشكيل العوامل الرئيسية المسببة للتآكل ،وهما الأحماض (HCI ، H2S). اصبح من الازم تحييد تأثير هذه العوامل في وحدات وأبراج التقطير من خلال تغيير مواقع أضافة المواد الكيمياوية حيث تستخدم المصافي النفطية مادة مانع التأكل الغشائي والصودا الكاوية كذلك مادة الامين المحايد للسيطرة والحد من تأثير ايون الكلورايد ومعدلات الحديد والاملاح والسيطرة على قيم (PH).
نتيجة لذلك تهتم هذه الورقة البحثية في وضع دراسة أضافة وتغيير مناطق (نقاط) حقن المواد الكيمياوية خاصة (الصودا الكاوية والأمين المحايد) في نقاط محددة مغايرة، وكما هو معروف جيدًا، يمر النفط الخام عبر عدد من المبادلات الحرارية المختلفة لرفع درجة حرارته استعدادًا لعمليات التصفية. وجد أن تغيير إضافة الأمين المحايد في منطقة الراجع من برج التثبيت مقطع الكيروسين (القطفات التي يتم إرجاعها إلى برج المصفاة الرئيسي) له تأثير كبير في السيطرة على تثبيت قيم الاس الهيدروجيني بين (5.5-6.5) وتقليل تركيز أيون الحديد بمعدل (1% ppm). بينما يعتمد حقن الصودا الكاوية على درجات حرارة النفط الخام لذا يتم تغييرة الى نقطتين الأولى هي قبل المبادلات الحرارية أي عندما تكون درجة حرارة النفط الخام (20 - 35) درجة مئوية، الثانية بعد أن يصل النفط الخام إلى درجة الحرارة (65 - 90) درجة مئوية، له تأثير كبير في تقليل تركيز ايون الكورايد بمعدل (1-5 ppm) الموجود على شكل املاح الكلورايد الذائبة في النفط الخام.

10

A Review of Gas Pumps Fault Behavior and Measurement, Diagnosis and Identification Methods Including Virtual Sensors

Mohammed Al Zubaidi, Salman Khudhur, Ahmed Khudhair

Pages: 162-182 English

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Abstract

Almost half of all electrical pump capacity consume in three-phase induction motors and most of them use in gas pumps and compressor in processes of industries for heating, cooling, pumping, conveyors, etc. The most important role of fault detection and detection (FDD) for manufacturing equipment is an effective indicator that can identify the faulty state of a process and then take appropriate action against future failures or adverse events. The impact of proper maintenance is reflected on an especially costly type of industrial machine. To avoid reducing the efficiency of the gas station, automated fault detection and diagnostics is very important and need to study. This article aims to establish a criterion for selecting which faults can be tested under laboratory conditions or by simulation with a virtual model and to determine the features that identify those faults. This efficiency identify of faults leads to saving of energy, service and operating costs. Virtual sensors applied to gas pumps to reduce the cost associated with FDD implementation are described. Finally, several areas of improvement for the aspects reviewed have been identified: increase the use of performance indicators for FDD, new and updated studies about the health status of field heat pumps, testing methods that take into account the gradual and probabilistic nature of heat pump faults and further research in the use of virtual sensors in FDD systems.

Keywords

fault detection Fault modeling Gas pumps Laboratory testing Virtual sensors

11

Risk Management in The Oil Sector / Oil Exploration Company as A Case Study

Noor A. Abdul Jabbar, Hatem K. Breesam

Pages: 183-201 English

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Abstract

This paper aims to propose a decision tool that helps estimate the risk probability in the petroleum sector in Iraq, which has many benefits for identifying the most important factor. This model was developed by using the relative importance index (RII) method incorporated into fuzzy Logic. An extensive literature review was conducted, and a questionnaire was distributed to the private and government sectors to scan all possible risks in the petroleum sector. As a result, forty–eight risks in the petroleum sector were identified and categorized into four groups: operational risks, financial and administrative risks, economic and political risks, and potential risks. Over 170 questionnaire forms have been distributed to engineers, managers, experts, and technicians, and 153 forms have been adopted for the analysis. The SPSS software was used to execute the statistical analysis concerning statical mean and relative important index. Also, the questionnaire results were analyzed using the relative importance index. The ranking of the groups and factors was demonstrated according to their level of effect on risk. Finally, a fuzzy assessment model was constructed and tested being appropriate to identify the probability of risk in the Iraqi petroleum sector to assess and estimate risk. Oil exploration company, one of the associations of the ministry of oil in Iraq, has been taken as a case study of this research to determine the risks and validate the model. This paper will seek the best solution to eliminate or minimized risks in the Iraqi patrolmen sector, especially at the Iraq oil exploration company as it has been taken as a case study. Three types of risk solutions were tested and optimized and those solutions are the avoid, the mitigate, and the transfer of the risks. The ANP mothed was used to determine the priority or the effectiveness of each type of solution to find the best alternative option for each risk factor. The result shows that the best way to deal with oil and gas risks in the Iraq petroleum sector is to avoid these risks. Because the solutions belonging to this group have an effective value of 65.4 %. The other two groups of mitigation and transfer have less effectiveness of 19.8 % and 14.8 % respectively. Moreover, the local and global priorities of the most important risk factor are also determined to validate and optimized the result. Finally, a list of alternative solutions recommended by the experts has been illustrated.

Keywords

Alternative Analytical Network Process economic and political risks financial and administrative risks Fuzzy logic operational risks potential risks solutions.

Abstract

تعتبر إدارة المخاطر من المواضيع المهمة جدًا لنجاح المشاريع حيث يجب تقليل المخاطر في المشاريع البترولية لتحقيق أهداف الإنتاج. تتكون إدارة المخاطر من التخطيط ، والتحديد ، والتحليل والاستجابة وهي اهم مرحلة. عن طريق التحكم في المخاطر تكون للمشاريع القدرة على التغلب على المخاطر وبالتالي إنتاج الكميات المستهدفة بشكل فعال. في هذه الدراسة، تم فحص أربعة أنواع من المخاطر في قطاع النفط والغاز خاصة في شركة الاستكشافات النفطية العراقية والتي تم أخذها كدراسة حالة. هذه الأنواع الأربعة من المخاطر هي المخاطر التشغيلية و المخاطر المالية والإدارية والمخاطر الااقتصادية والسياسية واخيرا المخاطر الكامنة. تم فحص تأثير هذه الأنواع الاربعة من المخاطر باستخدام نموذج استبيان مغلق. استند نموذج الاستبيان على مقياس ليكرت الخماسي ويحتوي الاستبيان المغلق على 114 عامل من عوامل الخطر الموزعة في أربع مجموعات تمثل الأنواع الأربعة للمخاطر التي تم فحصها. تم توزيع أكثر من 170 نموذج استبيان على المهندسين والعاملين والخبراء والفنيين، وتم اعتماد 153 نموذجًا للتحليل. تم استخدام برنامج SPSS لتنفيذ التحليل الإحصائي المتعلق بالمتوسط الإحصائي والاهمية النسبية. وتم التوصل الى أهم العوامل او المخاطر الموثرة على قطاع النفظ والغاز في العراق ومن ثم التحقق من صحتها باستخدام قائمة مراجعة التقييم.وجدت الدراسة أن أكثر العوامل التي تؤثر على المخاطر التشغيلية هي: وجود ألغام ومتفجرات من مخلفات الحروب الماضية في مناطق سيتم استكشافها اضافة الى التخزين غير الصحيح للمواد القابلة للاشتعال. اما بالنسبة للمخاطر المالية والإدارية، تبين أن وجود الفساد المالي والإداري في شركات النفط وسوء الإدارة من قبل المديرين أو مساعديهم لهما الأثر الأكبر على هذا النوع من المخاطر.
بالإضافة إلى ذلك، هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى اقتراح أداة قرار تساعد على تقدير احتمالية المخاطر في قطاع البترول في العراق. لهذا السبب، تم تطوير برنامج حاسوبي باستخدام طريقة مؤشر الأهمية النسبية (RII) المدمجة في المنطق الضبابي. تم إنشاء نموذج تقييم ضبابي واختباره ليكون مناسبًا لتحديد احتمالية المخاطر في قطاع النفط العراقي لتقييم وتقدير المخاطر.تم اختبار وتحسين ثلاثة أنواع من حلول المخاطر وهذه الحلول هي تجنب المخاطر اوتخفيفها اونقلها. تم استخدام نهج الشبكة التحليلية (ANP) الذي يعد أحد أكثر طرق اتخاذ القرار متعددة المعايير تقدمًا وتعقيدًا في التحليل. تم محاكاة متغيرات التبعيات والتعليقات بين عناصر الشبكة باستخدام نهج ANP لتحديد الأولوية أو فعالية كل نوع من الحلول للعثور على أفضل خيار. تظهر النتائج أن أفضل طريقة للتعامل مع مخاطر النفط والغاز في قطاع النفط العراقي هو تجنب هذه المخاطر. لأن الحلول التي تنتمي لهذه المجموعة لها قيمة فاعلية تساوي 65.4٪. المجموعتان الأخريان من التخفيف او النقل لديهما فعالية بنسبة 19.8٪ و 14.8٪ على التوالي، علاوة على ذلك، تم تحديد الاوزان للمخاطر العالمية و المحلية وذلك للتحقق من صحة النتيجة وتحسينها. أخيرًا ، تم اعداد قائمة من الحلول البديلة التي أوصى الخبراء بتطبيقها للتعامل مع المخاطر في القطاع النفطي.

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Performance Evaluation According to the Strategic Plan Standard of the European Excellence Model EFQM / A Case Study in the North Oil Company

Shaimaa A. Dizdar

Pages: 1-21 Arabic

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Abstract

The idea of the research was manifested into a document to present the status of a project (strategic plan) for the North Oil Company and to analyze the results reflected in the guiding evidence for the years (2020 and 2021) to see the extent to which the strategy standard is applied and documented in the company according to the European Excellence Model (EFQM 2013).
The researcher used a case study method through a check list to collect data in order to evaluate the performance of the company’s strategic plan standard، analyze it، extract the percentage and the arithmetic mean of the extent to which the standard matches the European Excellence Model، and (RADAR) logic was used to display the results of the strategic plan standard for the methodologies that represented Assessment of the weight (strengths) of the company.
The research reached a number of conclusions، the most important of which is that the company has reached the level of total and undocumented application of the paragraphs of the strategic plan standard with a percentage of (57%) of the total points of the strategic plan standard، which amounted to (100) points out of the total number of points of the European Excellence Model، which amounted to (500) points. For the five criteria of the model، and it was found that the sub-criterion (strategy development، review and update in accordance with the policies supporting it) is the highest percentage in application and documentation among the other sub-criteria of the main criterion the strategic plan by (66%)، and the researcher recommended the need to formulate an integrated strategic plan for the company that depends Based on real data، conducting an analysis of the internal and external environment، formulating a vision and mission، setting specific، measurable and applicable long-term goals، and defining continuous monitoring and evaluation indicators in order to achieve the outstanding performance of the company.

Keywords

European Excellence EFQM. performance appraisal strategic plan

Abstract

تجسدت فكرة البحث الى الحاجة لعرض وثيقة حالة معيار (الخطة الاستراتيجية) لشركة نفط الشمال وتحليل النتائج التي تعكسها الادلة الاسترشادية للعامين (2020 و 2021) بهدف معرفة مدى تطبيق وتوثيق معيار الخطة الاستراتيجية في الشركة وفقاً لأنموذج التميز الأوربي(EFQM 2013) .
تم استخدام منهج دراسة حالة من خلال قائمة الفحص (Check list) لجمع البيانات بغية تقييم أداء معيار الخطة الاستراتيجية للشركة وتحليلها واستخراج النسبة المئوية والمتوسط الحسابي لمدى مطابقة المعيار مع أنموذج التميز الاوربي، وتم استخدام منطق (RADAR) لعرض نتائج معيار الخطة الاستراتيجية للمنهجيات التي مثلت تقييم وزنها (نقاط قوة) للشركة.
توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات أهمها أن الشركة قد وصلت لمستوى التطبيق الكلي وغير الموثق لفقرات معيار الخطة الاستراتيجية وبنسبة تطبيق مئوية (57%) من مجموع نقاط معيار الخطة الاستراتيجية والبالغة (100) نقطة من المجموع الكلي لنقاط أنموذج التميز الاوربي والبالغة (500) نقطة للمعايير الخمسة للأنموذج، وتبين إن المعيار الفرعي (تطوير الاستراتيجية ومراجعتها وتحديثها بالتوافق مع السياسات الداعمة لها) هو اعلى نسبة في التطبيق والتوثيق من بين المعايير الفرعية الاخرى للمعيار الرئيس للخطة الاستراتيجية بنسبة (66%)، وتوصل البحث الى ضرورة صياغة خطة استراتيجية متكاملة للشركة تعتمد على بيانات حقيقية، واجراء تحليل للبيئة الداخلية والخارجية وصياغة رؤية ورسالة ووضع اهداف محددة وقابلة للقياس وقابلة للتطبيق طويلة المدى وتحديد مؤشرات مراقبة وتقييم مستمرة بغية تحقيق الأداء المتميز للشركة.

Keywords

تقييم الاداء، الخطة الاستراتيجية، التميز الاوربي EFQM.

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Iraq Crude Oil Exports – April, May, June/ 2021

Pages: 1-4 English

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Journal of Petroleum Research & Studies

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