University of Kirkuk Journal For Administrative and Economic Science

Introduction, Volume 13, Issue 4, English

Issue Introduction of Volume 13 Issue 4

Cover of Vol 13 Issue 4

Contents of Volume 13 Issue 4

The aim of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis comparing the effectiveness of two distinct models, Markov chains and neural networks, in forecasting population growth patterns in Iraq. Accurate population forecasts are essential for informed decision-making in a nation undergoing demographic changes. We examine the growth of the population in Iraq during the period 1961–2022. The data was obtained on Iraqi population growth from the website:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=IQ.
Markov chain models, which rely on probabilistic transitions, offer a probabilistic framework for population growth prediction. These models operate under the assumption that future population states depend solely on the current state, providing a straightforward yet potent tool for demographic forecasting. Conversely, neural networks, a subset of machine learning models, provide a more adaptable approach capable of discerning complex patterns and relationships within the data. The result shows that neural network models give us an advantage over Markov chain models because the value of the mean square error in neural network models is less than the value in Markov chain models and that the predictive value of annual population growth in Iraq is (%2.99) over a period of 2022 to 2029.

This study explores the dynamic interplay between oil price fluctuations, GDP, export volume, and inflation rates in Iraq, China, and the United States from 2012 to 2026. The findings highlight significant correlations between oil price fluctuations and inflation across these nations, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and managing oil market dynamics to control inflationary pressures. Additionally, the study uncovers distinct relationships between GDP growth and inflation, with Iraq exhibiting a negative correlation, while China and the United States display an inverse relationship, suggesting the need for tailored economic growth strategies in each context. Although the impact of export volume on inflation is less pronounced, the study underscores its continued importance in national economic strategies. In light of these findings, the study proposes a set of policy recommendations aimed at optimizing economic growth, inflation management, and resilience to external shocks, including prudent oil price management, proactive economic growth policies, and flexible monetary measures.

This research aims to give an idea of the mechanism of transmission of influence between political risk variables and the performance of real estate sector companies in Iraq, by presenting the most prominent real estate concepts and dimensions related to this concept and real estate investment concepts, and then highlighting the factors affecting this sector, as well as building a quantitative standard model, to test the impact of political risk implications (voting and accountability (AV), political stability (PV), government effectiveness (GE), regulatory quality (RQ), rules of law (RL), control of corruption (CC)) on the most important performance indicators of real estate sector companies, which is (the rate of return on investment (ROI)) for some real estate sector companies registered in the Iraqi financial market, specifically (Al-Amin Company, Al-Maamoura Company, Al-Nukhba Company, and Baghdad Iraq Company), for the purpose of answering the question (Can the contents of political risks influence the performance indicators of the real estate sector?), which represents the problem on which the research was based and for the time period 2011-2020.
The research was based on the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method, it is considered within the environment of the autoregressive model for distributed time gaps for Panel ARDL Model data in building the model and estimating the results, with the tests this method contains, and quarterly data were adopted for all research variables. The research reached several conclusions, perhaps the most prominent of which is that the impact of political risks was positive on the rate of return on investment, and this is due to the relationship between return and profit. The research suggests that existing companies (that follow a risk-taking policy) increase the rate of investment in countries with high political risks in order to reach high rates of profitability.

This research aims to identify small projects and their role in achieving the economic dimension of sustainable development in Iraq for the period (2004-2021), as well as analyzing the relationship between small projects and the economic dimension of sustainable development represented by the average per capita through the use of the quantitative method. This research showed the importance of small projects in creating job opportunities, generating income and unemployment and poverty, which contributes to activating sustainable development indicators as well as its contribution to the optimal exploitation of local resources and then preserving the environment. The research concluded through the quantitative method that there is a long term of equilibrium relationship The term between small projects and the economic dimension of sustainable development in Iraq during the study period., and this means that small projects contribute in one way or another to activating the indicators of the economic dimension of sustainable development in Iraq

The problem of public debt is considered one of the contemporary issues, and Iraq is considered one of the countries that rely on public debt to a large extent to finance the public budget, due to Iraq’s dependence on one source of income represented by oil revenues, whose prices are unstable and which are determined according to global markets. Another side has current expenditures that cannot be easily reduced, represented by the salaries of government sector workers, and therefore the decline in oil prices leads to an exacerbation of public debt in order to finance current expenditures. Therefore, this research tries to shed light on the impact of internal public debt on the real GDP in Iraq, and is that The uses of this debt have a positive effect on the real gross domestic product, and the research in the standard aspect and through the (Ardl) model concluded that there is an effect and an inverse relationship in the short and long term in the current period, and this is due to the increase in internal public debt as a result of the decrease in prices Oil, which finances current expenditures at the expense of investment expenditures, and this leaves a negative impact on the real gross domestic product through the fact that current spending is represented by demand, most of it is from imports and not the local product, and therefore the public finances in Iraq did not adopt the opinion of any of the economic schools Whether classical or Keynesian, therefore, the study recommended the use of funds that are borrowed to finance the deficit in the general budget in financing investment expenditures in order to increase tax capacity and thus increase revenues for public finances in Iraq, as well as leaving a positive impact on the real gross domestic product, and this is consistent with the opinion of the school canonian.

The current research seeks to explain the nature and determine the level of the relationship between enlightened leadership as an independent variable and organizational anatomics as a dependent variable in the presidency of the University of Baghdad. This comes as an attempt to reduce or bridge the cognitive gap between the two research variables. The developer, the servant, the visionary, the communicator) in the organizational anthropology represented by its dimensions (organizational non-normality, lack of organizational values, organizational cynicism) for a sample of employees of the presidency of the University of Baghdad to find out the relationship and influence between the research variables. To collect data, in addition to using statistical methods such as (the arithmetic mean, percentages, standard deviation, the coefficient of variation, the correlation coefficient (Pearson) and the method of simple linear regression analysis through the use of the package ((SPSS) to analyze the practical side, as the University of Baghdad was chosen as a field for research and the research community included Presidency of the University The research sample was chosen randomly, amounting to (53) individuals from the individuals working in the presidency of the university, as the research community consisted of (560) individuals. Field visits, that there is a weakness in giving incentives, especially since some departments in the presidency of the university work heavily to provide services, which poses a danger in the growth of the phenomenon of organizational anatomicalism in the future. Private and administrative leaders in public organizations in general adopt the practices and behaviors of enlightened leadership in a more efficient and effective manner because of its great role in motivating individuals to be loyal and love work and their sense of organizational justice.

The research aims to determine the extent of the availability of change leadership skills among the administrative leaders at Duhok Technical University and its impact on achieving the strategic renewal of the researched organization. The problem of the study can be presented through the following research question: What is the extent of the availability of change leadership skills among the administrative leaders in the researched organizations and their reflection in Achieving strategic renewal? The research provided a theoretical framework that addressed the most important concepts of the study variables, which are (change leadership skills and dimensions of strategic renewal), and a field framework in order to identify the nature of the correlations and influence between change leadership skills as an independent variable and strategic renewal as a dependent variable. The researchers used the questionnaire as the main tool for collecting data from the sample members, represented by a number of administrative leaders in the researched organizations, numbering (36) individuals, while the data was analysed through the use of a set of analytical statistical methods such as arithmetic averages, standard deviations, and the T-test. , and test (F). And the interpretation coefficient (R2) using the statistical package (SPSS). The researchers reached a set of conclusions, the most prominent of which was: the existence of a significant correlation and influence between change leadership skills and strategic renewal, and among the most important recommended that came out of the research: the need for administrative leaders to pay attention to adopting change leadership skills.

The study aims to know the role of inspiring leadership as an input in promoting talent attraction, and to achieve this, the analytical descriptive approach was relied upon. It was distributed to the respondents, who numbered (207) educational supervisors working in the departments of educational supervision and educational specialist supervision in the General Directorate of Education of Kirkuk Governorate. The Educational Supervision Department was valid for analysis, (12) questionnaires were not valid for analysis, (60) forms retrieved from the Educational Specialist Supervision Department were valid for analysis, and (10) forms were not valid for analysis, and the proportion of valid forms for analysis was (89%), and it was approved In analyzing data on a set of statistical methods such as arithmetic mean, standard deviations, relative importance, confirmatory factor analysis, and extracting results using the ready-made software package (20.) Spss V.22.Amos V. The results of the study concluded that there is a positive (direct) correlation. Of significant significance, between the variable of inspiring leadership and the variable of attracting talents, as well as the presence of a significant impact of the inspiring leadership on attracting talents in the field under study, and in the light of the conclusions reached by the study, a set of recommendations were presented, perhaps the most prominent of which are: To enhance the recruitment of talents because of their great benefit that enables them to achieve their goals.

The research aimed to test the relationship between the size of the company, measured by the company’s market value and its total assets as an independent variable, and the company’s stock return as a dependent variable, in addition to determining the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. In this research, the companies in the research sample were classified according to two criteria. The size of the company by its two dimensions adopted in the research: (market value and total assets), and its stock return. The research problem, which was crystallized through reviewing previous cognitive efforts, was summarized by answering the following main question: Is there an effect of the size of the company on its stock return? This is due to the fundamental impact of the company's size in determining stock returns, in addition to the importance of the company's stock return in determining its characteristics. The quantitative analytical method was used on data collected from the financial statements and statements related to the research sample companies from the website of the Iraq Stock Exchange and the Iraqi Securities Commission. By using pooled cross-sectional time series models (Panel Data), the results showed the suitability of the fixed effects model for the relationship between company size and its stock return, as it was found that there is a direct significant effect of the size of a company on its stock return, and that company size explains (58%) of the stock return variance. In addition, there is a strong direct relationship between the size of the company and the return of its shares.

The study dealt with the topic of the contributions of electronic administration in promoting pharmaceutical marketing activities, it tried to provide a clear perception on the theoretical side and clear answers on the field side regarding its variables, especially since the independent variable is electronic management represented by (legislative requirements, technical requirements, financial requirements, human requirements), While the dependent variable is pharmaceutical marketing (pharmaceutical product, pharmaceutical pricing, pharmaceutical promotion, pharmaceutical distribution). The study was selected in (Pharmalys Iraq) and North Rod Company in Erbil as a study population. The study adopted the questionnaire as a main tool for collecting data and information in the field, in addition to conducting personal interviews. The study variables were described and diagnosed.
The study reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are: The existence of a significant positive effect relationship of electronic management in drug marketing. The study concludes with a number of necessary proposals for the organizations concerned with the study. In addition to the proposals presented to future researchers in the topics of electronic management and drug marketing.

The current research aims to diagnose the nature of the connection and influence and its interpretation between the two research variables represented by academic leadership in its dimensions (visionary, adaptable, capable, effective leadership, transformational leadership, charisma) and strategic partnerships in its dimensions (joint research projects, establishing joint laboratories, joint academic programs, programs academic exchange), as well as an indication of the level of awareness of these variables and their dimensions in the researched university by working on describing and diagnosing the variables, leading to presenting a number of conclusions and recommendations that may contribute to strengthening these variables,To achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher adopted the analytical descriptive approach, and the University of Fallujah was chosen as a field for research, and the research community consisted of academic leaders at the administrative levels, and they are deans of colleges, their assistants, and heads of departments and centers. This research was applied to an intentional sample of (63) individuals, and the questionnaire was adopted as a tool A major in collecting data related to the practical side of the research, which included (54) items, in addition to field visits and direct meetings that enhanced the data collection process. Data was processed and analyzed using a number of descriptive and inferential statistical tools such through the use of statistical analysis programs (SPSS V.23), (AMOS V.23) to test the research's main and subsidiary hypotheses,The research reached a set of results, the most important of which was (the presence of correlation and influence relationships of positive and moral significance for the variable of academic leadership in its dimensions in strategic partnerships in its dimensions in the researched university, and in light of the conclusions reached by the research, a number of recommendations were presented, the most important of which is (the need to strengthen strategic partnerships through focus On its dimensions (joint research projects, establishing joint laboratories, joint academic programs, academic exchange programs) and in a way that contributes to strengthening its strength and achieving its goals.

The aim of the study is to identify the effect of interactive marketing in enhancing the elements of brand value. The analytical descriptive approach was used for this purpose by the researcher, In order to achieve the objectives of the research, reliance was made questionnaire form as the main tool for data collection, where the sample members were selected from the customers of the surveyed stores in the city of Kirkuk To get acquainted with their opinions, (105) forms were distributed, and only (100) forms were valid for statistical analysis. The study reached several results, the most important of which is that the results of the multiple regression analysis revealed that there is a discrepancy in the effect of the interactive marketing dimensions combined in achieving each element of the value of the brand. The shops surveyed in the first place, and based on the results of the study, the study presented a set of proposals that help the surveyed shops to benefit from employing the positive relationship between the variables of the study and its sub-dimensions.

The research aims to know the extent to which there is a relationship between public revenues and the rate of savings in the Iraqi economy using quarterly data for the period (2005-2021), and the research proceeds from the basic hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between public revenues and savings, and the results of the analytical side showed the presence of fluctuations in the values of each of the revenues The results of the standard analysis showed that there is a direct, statistically significant relationship between public revenues and savings rates. The research concluded a set of conclusions, the most important of which was the existence of a strong and significant positive correlation at a significant level (1%), which means that the increase in public revenues led to an increase in savings in the Iraqi economy during the research period. As for the recommendations, the most important of them is working on the optimal use of available economic resources, making radical reforms in investment projects, focusing on productivity and effective use of capital, and the need to provide a stable policy. It helps to increase revenues in all its forms, and finally the need to work to increase coordination and interdependence between the policy of public revenues and savings in the Iraqi economy.

The study aimed to identify the impact of the cash conversion cycle of Al Kindi Company for the Production of Vaccines and Veterinary Medicines for the period 2012-2021, and what should be done about it if it is positive (collecting receivables from debtors is faster than making payments from creditors) and enhancing it, or negative (collecting revenues from debtors is slower than Making payments to creditors) to address the imbalance in order to avoid incurring additional costs that raise the total cost of financing. The cash conversion cycle is one of the financial policies that receives the attention of company management as it is a basic pillar in the field of financial management. The importance of the study stems from achieving its primary goal, which is to demonstrate the impact of the cycle. The cash shift in the total cost of financing. From this standpoint, the study focused on the problem that many companies in general and industrial companies in particular suffer from, which includes the extent to which the cash allocation cycle affects their total cost of financing, which is affected by how companies provide liquidity from their sales, as well as Delaying the payment of its payments, due to its importance in providing the necessary liquidity to finance the financial needs of companies through optimal exploitation of it and not resorting to other expensive sources of financing except when absolutely necessary, in a way that does not conflict with creating an imbalance between profitability and liquidity, and in order to reach an initial solution to this problem. Two main hypotheses were assumed, the first being the financial hypothesis and the second the statistical hypothesis, from which a group of sub-hypotheses branched out. In order to achieve the objectives of the study and test the hypotheses to ensure their validity, the descriptive analytical approach was adopted, as the descriptive approach focused on the theoretical aspect of the study in terms of reviewing the theoretical relationship. Between the variables of the monetary transformation cycle and the total financing cost variable, while the analytical approach focused on adopting the financial analysis of the study variables, as well as statistical analysis to analyze time-sectional data (Panel Data) through the use of many tests, between the variables, and after passing those tests, a model was estimated. Multiple linear regression using the least squares method, which resulted in a set of conclusions, the most important of which is that the quality of cash conversion cycle management in the company sampled the study, and based on the conclusions, the study suggested that the company should increase work on improving their cash conversion cycle.

The research aims to diagnose the role that scenario planning plays with its dimensions in achieving strategic foresight with its dimensions. The researcher adopted the descriptive analytical approach in presenting, analyzing and interpreting research information, because it helps to collect a very large number of research data and information related to the research phenomenon or problem. The research was conducted in the Zain Iraq Company for Cellular Communications, and the research sample reached (130) managers from the senior and middle leaders, and (94) managers were selected as a sample for the research, and the researcher adopted the questionnaire as a main tool for data collection, and in order to process the data, a set of statistical methods were used to analyze the data that was collected and processed using the SPSS V. 25 program and the (AMOS) program, and the research reached a set of conclusions that corresponded in their entirety with The research hypotheses, the most important of which is the interest of the researched company in all the variables and dimensions of the research, the existence of significant correlations between the research variables and its sub-dimensions, and the existence of an impact of scenario planning in achieving strategic foresight in the researched company.

This research aims to explain the role played by supervisory tools in planning investment spending in private Iraqi banks, This includes the procedures of audit tools, their objectives, and methods for reporting audit results, The questionnaire was used as a tool for collecting data, which was distributed to a sample of bank employees, the research sample represented by (the Iraqi Investment Bank, the Iraqi Middle East Investment Bank), The data was analyzed according to the SPSS statistical program to calculate (arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, regression coefficient, and F value), The research concluded the important role of regulatory tools in planning investment spending, The results showed a statistically significant effect at a significant level (0.05) of the supervisory tools in planning investment spending in private Iraqi banks, The research recommended the need to pay attention to the procedures of supervisory tools due to their positive impact on the bank’s work in general and on investment spending planning in particular.

The research aims to determine the role of strategic foresight in reducing marketing turmoil, and to demonstrate the ability of Korek Telecom Mobile Communications Company in Iraq to confront marketing Disruption by conducting environmental scanning, strategic selection, and integration capabilities. The research started from a realistic problem represented by the necessity of Korek Telecom Company’s continuous pursuit of... Reducing the marketing disruption occurring as a result of the environmental challenges it faces, represented by the movements of competing companies in the communications sector, technological developments, economic transformations, and changes in consumer behavior, which requires them to activate the concept of strategic foresight. Thus, the researchers turned to the Korek Telecom mobile communications company in Iraq as a field for their study. The administrative leaders working in it were chosen as a population for the study. In their study, the researchers used a sample of administrative leaders who had a role in the strategic foresight process, numbering (126). By adopting the exploratory approach, distributing a number of questionnaires, and using a number of statistical methods, the research concluded with a number The most important conclusion is that there is a direct impact of strategic foresight in reducing marketing Disruption. The research recommends the need for Korek’s administrative leadership to pay attention to activating the concept of strategic foresight and its great benefits in confronting and reducing marketing Disruption.

The current research aims to identify self-pleasure with its dimensions represented by (high positive affectivity and low negative affectivity), and its impact on enhancing creative behavior through the dimensions represented by (exploring opportunities, generating ideas, and implementing ideas or application) in order to know whether self-pleasure has the ability to Achieving creative behavior? Assuming that self-pleasure has a significant relationship in achieving creative behavior. The research adopted the descriptive analytical approach. As for the field aspect, the research community was represented by workers in the Nineveh Health Department, as the research sample consisted of (177) randomly selected. The research adopted the questionnaire as the main tool for obtaining the required data. A set of statistical methods were also adopted to analyze Data and hypothesis testing. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is what the individual feels and the expectations he has about his abilities and potentials and how to reduce their negatives; It ultimately leads to the development of creative behavior in a way that enables the generation of ideas and their implementation to reach the desired goals. The research also presented recommendations, the most important of which is working to enhance aspects of self-pleasure in a way that contributes to enhancing the creative behavior of working individuals, by rewarding those who have positive solutions and enhance confidence in the souls of their fellow workers.

Organizations in today\'s world face major challenges related to market fluctuations and demand changes, and this requires them to be able to adjust their manufacturing strategies and processes quickly and effectively. However, many traditional manufacturing systems rely on rigid and difficult-to-change structures, which hinders their ability to effectively meet these challenges. Due to the importance of the above, this research attempts to obtain a better understanding of the role that a group of critical dimensions of strategic flexibility can play in strengthening the quick response manufacturing system in the industrial sector, specifically in the large factories of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire form was adopted as the main tool for collecting data, which was sent to those concerned electronically. (50) valid responses were received for statistical analysis. The research results revealed that the critical dimensions of strategic flexibility play a crucial role in strengthening the manufacturing system by responding quickly to changes in the market and business needs. Based on the results, the research recommended that for the management of the researched manufacturing organizations to succeed in strengthening the rapid response manufacturing system as a whole, careful attention must be paid to the critical dimensions of strategic flexibility and given priority to it as a very vital cost center for developing and improving the ability to adapt and change in the face of successive challenges that can face any industrial system. Organizations in today\'s world face major challenges related to market fluctuations and demand changes, and this requires them to be able to adjust their manufacturing strategies and processes quickly and effectively. However, many traditional manufacturing systems rely on rigid and difficult-to-change structures, which hinders their ability to effectively meet these challenges. Due to the importance of the above, this research attempts to obtain a better understanding of the role that a group of critical dimensions of strategic flexibility can play in strengthening the quick response manufacturing system in the industrial sector, specifically in the large factories of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire form was adopted as the main tool for collecting data, which was sent to those concerned electronically. (50) valid responses were received for statistical analysis. The research results revealed that the critical dimensions of strategic flexibility play a crucial role in strengthening the manufacturing system by responding quickly to changes in the market and business needs. Based on the results, the research recommended that for the management of the researched manufacturing organizations to succeed in strengthening the rapid response manufacturing system as a whole, careful attention must be paid to the critical dimensions of strategic flexibility and given priority to it as a very vital cost center for developing and improving the ability to adapt and change in the face of successive challenges that can face any industrial system.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important global health problem, with millions of people affected by chronic HCV worldwide. Accurate prediction of the number of individuals living with chronic HCV in Iraq is essential for public health planning, resource allocation, and the development of effective intervention strategies. This paper proposes a different approach to predicting chronic HCV prevalence using a weighted-gray Markov chain model. The GW-MCM model integrates Markov chain modelling principles with gray system theory, providing a powerful framework for capturing the dynamics of chronic HCV spread. The model takes into account multiple factors, including HCV transmission rate, treatment rates, and demographic changes. Data from multiple sources, including epidemiological studies, health care records, and population distribution, are integrated into the model to ensure accuracy. This research uses historical data to calibrate and validate the gray-weighted Markov chain model, ensuring its reliability in predicting the spread of chronic HCV over time. Data for this study were obtained from the website: https://www.globalhep.org/country-progress/iraq. The data shows the number of people infected with the disease in Iraq for the years 1990–2019. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the GW-MCM model is much higher than the GM model (1,1), and the number of people living with chronic HCV for the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 is not constant, meaning that it increases and decreases until 2025, then begins to increase. After 2025, it begins to decline until it reaches a stable level.