Iraqi Journal For Economic Sciences

The governments of the countries of the world seek to raise the standard of living for the members of society, and the gross domestic product is the most important indicator that expresses economic growth in a country, and some macroeconomic variables are considered an engine and a driver for economic growth, and in order to enhance economic growth, this research aims to measure the effect of Some macroeconomic variables on economic growth in Iraq during the period (2005-2022). To achieve this goal, the research relied on the descriptive analytical approach and the standard analysis that relies on quarterly time series data, using (DLOS, FMOLS) models, to show the impact of each of operating expenditures, investment expenditures, oil revenues, non-oil revenues and inflation on the gross domestic product, and finally The research reached several conclusions, including: There is a positive relationship between operating expenditures and investment expenditures with the gross domestic product, i.e. public expenditures in both parts (operational and investment) contribute to achieving economic growth, but the contribution of investment expenditures is greater than operating expenditures. The impact of both oil revenues and non-oil revenues was positive on the gross domestic product, but the impact of oil revenues was greater than the impact of non-oil revenues, and this result corresponds to the Iraqi economy, which relies on oil revenues to finance economic growth. The research also concluded that the impact of the inflation rate was negative on economic growth in Iraq, because fluctuations in the general level of prices and the depreciation of the Iraqi dinar negatively affected purchasing power and economic growth in Iraq. ) also had a negative impact on the gross domestic product; That is, the political and security conditions (political conflicts, terrorism) that Iraq went through during the period (2005-2022), which negatively affected economic growth in Iraq; Accordingly, it is necessary that the policy of economic diversification is one of the most important means of achieving real economic growth through diversification of non-oil revenue sources on the one hand and rationalization of operational expenditures on the other hand, in order to strengthen the relationship between macroeconomic variables and economic growth.

The research aims to measure the impact of the degree of economic exposure on the rate of economic growth in the Iraqi economy for the period from (2000-2020) through the use of modern standard models based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results showed, through testing the stationarity of the time series, that the dependent variable i.e. the rate of economic growth has settled at the level, and therefore it is integrated from the zero degree, while the variable degree of economic exposure has settled at the first differences, so it is integrated from the first degree. The results indicated that there is an inverse relationship between the degree of economic exposure and the rate of economic growth in the Iraqi economy. It confirmed the validity of the test of the model used and that it is free from the problem (not proving homogeneity of variance) as well as the autocorrelation of the residuals, as the research reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are: One of the reasons for the fluctuation of the degree of economic exposure in the Iraqi economy during the research period is due to Iraq’s reliance on the strategy of openness. Rapid growth after 2003, which caused a state of chaos due to the policy of commodity dumping, which differs from the policy of closure that prevailed in the nineties. One of the most important recommendations of the research is adopting a trade policy by controlling the import movement to serve the reality of the Iraqi economy, as well as restructuring Iraqi exports and reducing dependence on the oil supplier and its products.

Despite the complex relations between Iraq and Turkey, which are mostly in the Turkish interest, especially the economic aspect, the Iraqi-Turkish trade balance shows the high volume of Iraqi imports from Turkey compared to the volume of exports, which are almost limited to raw materials, especially oil. However, it is noted that Turkey continues to pursue a policy that does not express good neighborliness, which appears in its political, economic, and water positions, which requires Iraq to reorganize the Iraqi economic side with Turkey in a way that ensures the repair of the trade deficit with Turkey, which increased after 2003, to be a pressure card on Turkey to reconsider its positions with Iraq, and gives Iraq a greater flexibility in response to these situations.

The study analyzed the impact of global innovation indicators in enhancing Turkish exports for the period (2011-2021). The importance of the study comes from the importance of the impact of global innovation indicators in stimulating Turkish exports, in order to benefit from them in Turkey in the future. The problem of the study lies in the following question: - Is there an impact of global innovation indicators on Turkish exports during the period (2011-2021), while the study aims to demonstrate the impact of global innovation indicators on Turkish exports during the period (2011-2021). The hypothesis of the study is:
1- The study assumes a direct impact of each of the indicators (institutions, human capital, infrastructure research, market development, business environment development, knowledge and technology outputs) on Turkish exports.
2- The study assumes that there is an inverse effect of the indicator (creative outputs) on Turkish exports.
The study reached a number of conclusions and recommendations, the most important of which are:
1- The study proved that there is a long-term direct and balanced relationship between human capital and research with exports, that is, when increasing one unit of the human capital index, it will lead to an increase in exports by (21,906) units.
2-The study proved that there is a long-term direct and balanced relationship between the market development index and Turkish exports, that is, when increasing one unit of the market development index, it will lead to an increase in exports by (15.274).
3- The study proved that there is a long-term inverse and balanced relationship between the creative outputs index and Turkish exports, that is, when the creative outputs index is increased by one unit, it will lead to a decrease in Turkish exports, and this is due to the weakness of innovations in the Turkish economy. Based on the conclusions, it recommends the following:
1- It is the responsibility of the Turkish government to work to enhance global innovation indicators in order to enhance its exports, especially exports of services in the Turkish economy.
2- It is the responsibility of the Turkish Ministry of Higher Education to increase spending on scientific research and cognitive training in order to provide the labor market with qualified personnel in Turkey.
3- It is imperative for the Turkish government to work to establish the Creativity and Innovation Authority in the Kurdistan Region in order to encourage and develop ideas and then transform them into reality.

These research papers aim to shed light on the phenomenon of the integrated marketing communications system and the tools and means of the promotional mix benefiting from computer science, automation, and artificial intelligence solutions. The latter, with its software, algorithms, and applications, possesses superior capabilities and awesome potential to customize messages and advertising channels, stimulate sales, and improve the performance of sales forces, enhancing public relations outcomes and other benefits of using electronic technologies on the efficiency of communication activities and the effectiveness of promotional efforts. The desktop survey revealed that integrated marketing communications supported by artificial intelligence achieve the goals of audience satisfaction and increased sales and profits. In the same context, contemporary organizations are in dire need of digital transformation to improve marketing and promotional decisions, in light of a cyber and computer environment that is expanding and growing irreversibly

The research targeted the impact of administrative perception on administrative decision-making, and perception is considered one of the foundations of behavioral management, and perception is the process through which the information and knowledge existing among individuals within the organizational environment is selected, organized, and analyzed and also affects the outlook of decision makers. The successful administrator understands the importance of perception because it is one of the influences on organizational behavior. Therefore, through this research, we find the relationship and impact of administrative perception on administrative decision-making. Decision-making is the act or process of thinking about the options presented and choosing one of them. Here we find the role of administrative perception. The questionnaire was distributed to a random sample consisting of (70) individuals working in commercial banks in the Erbil Governorate of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, from which (65) questionnaires were retrieved and (61) of which were valid for analysis through the ready-made statistical program SPSS and the program EasyFit. The statistical analysis shows that the average The overall value of the independent variable (administrative awareness) reached (3.8951), which is higher than the hypothetical average (3) by (0.8951), which indicates the agreement of the sample studied with the paragraphs of the independent variable, with an agreement degree of 77.9%, and a limited standard deviation of (1.0530), indicating a convergence of opinions. The sample studied and not being dispersed around the items measuring the independent variable. It also shows that the general average of the dependent variable (making administrative decisions) was (4.0164), which is higher than the hypothetical average (3) by (1.0164), which indicates the agreement of the sample studied with the paragraphs of the dependent variable, with an agreement degree of 80.33% and a limited standard deviation of (1.12584) indicates the convergence of the opinions of the sample studied and their lack of dispersion on the items measuring the dependent variable. Therefore, he rejected the null hypothesis and accepted the alternative hypothesis, which states that there is a statistically significant effect of administrative awareness in making administrative decisions, which was tested and its results were generalized to the research community as a whole.

The research aims to emphasize the importance of tourism being one of the components of the state’s economic policy and it cannot be ignored because it is a basic activity in economic activities. Rather, some tourism countries give it priority in these components. The importance of the research comes from the need to study the correlations between tourism policy and economic policy, since tourism has a major role in influencing economic activity, creating job and employment opportunities, increasing export revenues and gross domestic product, and bringing in foreign currencies to support and strengthen the balance of payments and a generous base for taxes, as well as In its role in confronting the problem of pollution, climate change, resource sustainability, and others.
The research assumed that the formulation of tourism policy begins within the framework of the general approach to economic policies, which achieves balance and integration in achieving comprehensive national goals.
The researchers concluded that tourism policy makers must pay attention and take into account the objectives of economic policy and link them to the objectives of tourism policy in order to contribute to achieving them by drawing up a realistic, effective and comprehensive tourism policy. Accordingly, the researchers recommended the need to formulate tourism policy and take decisions to plan and organize the tourism sector within the general framework of economic policy, to adapt to international trends that deal with tourism as an engine for sustainable economic growth, and thus facilitate the process of charting a course for tourism work with the participation of all professional and active parties and advancing the tourism sector as an important economic sector.

This study aims to know the impact of government financial support on the economic activity of youth and their small projects in the Kurdistan Region. The study relied on the annual data of the Small Enterprise Support Fund for Youth in the years (2011-2023), taking into account the questionnaire form for a selected sample of project owners benefiting from the Fund’s loans for the year 2023. A descriptive analysis approach was followed in the study to determine the role of government financial support on Youth economic activity. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which are: A significant number of young people have benefited from the Small Enterprise Support Fund loans for youth, and males received the lion’s share of it. The majority of the projects that received Small Enterprise Support Fund loans are commercial, service, and industrial projects. The majority of these projects are held in the center of governorates, districts and districts. Most of the project owners who received and benefited from loans believe that the amount of loans received played a major role in financing their projects, whether to establish them or expand them. Finally, the study presented a number of proposals, the most important of which are: It is necessary for women to be taken into account in the next lending plan so that they can build their economic independence through their projects. It is also necessary to increase interest in ideas and projects for this category of society in rural areas as well as workers in the field of agriculture. It is also necessary for the relevant authorities to By providing other non-financial services so that the owners of these projects can better invest the loans received and earn the income necessary to ensure the repayment of these loans on the specified dates

The research aims to identify tourism agreements and modern trends in the tourism industry and determine the level of correlation between tourism agreements and modern trends in the Iraqi tourism industry. The problem of the research was represented by a state of lack of clarity and ambiguity that plagues the tourism agreements regulating tourism work in Iraq, and that work in this framework is still not it is clear and lacks the methodological and scientific situation that is supposed to prevail in such a sensitive topic. As for the modern trends in the Iraqi tourism and travel industry, the problem arises through the lack of complete knowledge of the departments responsible for the tourism sector regarding the most prominent developments in this industry, and what methods should be adopted. In order to reach a state of tourism performance in which modern, advanced standards are adhered to, many conclusions can be reached, the most important of which is that the subject of concluding tourism agreements in Iraq is characterized by the multiplicity of parties and overlapping powers between more than one ministry, agency and institution, which of course results from the impact of these agreements on More than one security, economic, social and diplomatic level and aspect, and such overlap requires a lot of coordination, communication and cooperation efforts in a way that gives priority to developing the tourism sector and concluding agreements that have many positive effects. The state of fluctuation that the regulatory body responsible for the tourism sector has gone through has also affected the Authority. Ministry and institution, in the form, level and content of tourism agreements concluded over successive stages of time. Consequently, the sector lacked solid agreements with a developed tourism country, and most of the agreements concluded with regional countries were limited to specific tourism activities such as religious tourism activity. From the above, the research reached many recommendations, the most important of which is the necessity of building an independent and clear administrative form within the government apparatus that is responsible for tourism agreements. Its responsibility is to build plans and propose programs and strategies for concluding tourism agreements and submit them to the various government agencies, as well as working to select negotiating delegations according to professional standards. They are included in training courses that precede the negotiation process, through which they are provided with skills and knowledge related to understanding the tourism activity and its general details in order to create effectiveness for the negotiation teams during the negotiation process that leads to achieving the greatest benefit for the Iraqi tourism activity.

The Iraqi economy is considered a rentier economy, and therefore it suffers from the problem of its public revenues being dependent on the export of a primary commodity. The consumer nature of government spending, along with a decrease in the local supply of goods, increases the volume of imports, creating a relationship linking the general budget with the trade balance. The research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between the general budget deficit and the trade balance deficit in Iraq by adopting annual data for the period (2005-2020). The research is based on the hypothesis that there is a causal relationship linking the general budget deficit and the trade balance deficit, and the study arrived at proving the hypothesis that there is a relationship. Causality between the variables studied and the imbalance of both the structure of fiscal policy in favor of consumer spending and the structure of the trade balance due to the commodity concentration of exports versus the diversification of the import side, and the dependence of the general budget on its revenue side mainly on oil exports. The study recommended the need to rationalize government consumer spending and increase investment allocations while ensuring efficiency in their allocation, in addition to adopting a trade policy aimed at protecting the local product, especially agricultural products.

This research aims to study the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving macroeconomic goals after 2003 by studying a set of characteristics through which the effectiveness of monetary policy in the economy can be determined. One of the most important findings of the research is that the role of monetary policy in achieving macroeconomic goals is weak due to the link between monetary policy and government trends, and one of the most important recommendations reached by the research is to work to diversify sources of government revenues as a means of reducing pressure on monetary policy

The study aims to measure and analyze the effects of monetary and financial policies on banking profitability for the period (2005-2020) and in light of the reality that the Iraqi economy is experiencing through monetary policy, which are open market operations, the discount rate, the legal reserve ratio, and financial policy tools, which are public expenditures and public revenues. And the general budget, and how it affects banking performance indicators, which are the capital adequacy index. And the use of two longitudinal data models (Panel Data Models), namely the common effect model and the fixed effects model, which must be taken to measure the impact of monetary and financial policy tools on the capital adequacy index and banking performance in order to advance the economic and banking sector.
The results of the standard aspect showed that there is a clear and noticeable effect of monetary and financial policies on the capital adequacy index ratio index, and there is a clear effect of monetary and financial policies on the capital adequacy index of banking performance for a sample of commercial banks in Iraq for the period 2005 - 2020.

The research aims to highlight the role played by changes in the exchange rate on some macroeconomic variables in Iraq throughout the period (2004-2020) and how this role was positive or negative on the stability of the general level of prices in Iraq. The aforementioned research has reached a number of conclusions, perhaps the most important of which is that the process of trade exchange between different countries of the world does not take place unless there is an agreed-upon currency between the countries of the world concerned with the aforementioned exchange, which called for the emergence of what is known as (the exchange rate) in order to facilitate the aforementioned exchange process. . The research presented a number of recommendations that are in the interest of those in charge of the Iraqi economy and the necessity of adopting them or some of them in order to avoid problems that may occur and as a result affect the value of the local currency in daily trading. Perhaps the most important of them is placing strict control on outlets that sell foreign currencies, especially the dollar. In order to maintain the stability of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate.

The research aims to clarify the trends of the reciprocal relationship affecting both the currency issued by the Central Bank of Iraq and the gross domestic product. The issuance of currency is one of the important variables in supporting economic activity, especially the private sector, because of its impact on increasing production, and thus it contributes to raising the growth rates of the gross domestic product, in Iraq during the study period 2004-2021. The gross domestic product in general expresses economic efficiency, and the development of the standard of living, and then a measure of well-being. The gross domestic product is one of the most important and basic indicators that is used, in addition to other indicators, to formulate economic policies and make international and local comparisons. The gross domestic product is defined as the value of the outputs that are produced within the country in a period of time, usually a year, and in this study, the deductive analysis approach was followed, which relates to the analysis of the economic phenomenon or problem starting from generalities and using the financial analysis method for the variables of the study, and through this study it was achieved to verify the relationship between the changes that occur in the issuance of currency and the gross domestic product in some countries. years and this relationship was not achieved in other years of the research sample.

This research is concerned with analyzing liquidity risk indicators in Iraqi commercial banks for the period (2010-2020), as liquidity risks arise from the bank’s inability to provide financial needs, that is, its inability to pay short-term obligations. A group of financial indicators were analyzed, including total assets. Deposits, cash credit, and doubtful debts, in addition to the total paid-up capital, and some liquidity risk indicators were used, including the ratio (the ratio of total loans to total assets, the ratio of total loans to total deposits, and the ratio of liquid assets to total assets), and the research started from the hypothesis that commercial banks suffer from high indicators of liquidity risks, which negatively affects their ability to fulfill their obligations. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is that the main goal of analyzing banking risks is to find ways to reduce their negative effects in order to avoid them. As the two researchers noted, there is an increase in risks Liquidity in Iraqi commercial banks through the indicators used in the study. The study recommended the need for the bank to maintain liquid assets in a manner that is compatible with sudden requests to withdraw liquidity, regardless of their size.

This research aims to evaluate the reality of the housing market in Baghdad Governorate after the year 2003 by analyzing the demand side for housing and the most important factors affecting it, and analyzing the role of the public, private and family sectors in feeding the supply side that meets the increasing demand for housing.
The research concluded that government policies and the increase in population size in Baghdad Governorate have contributed to fueling the overflow of housing demand. The research recommended the need for government housing policies to pay attention to the issue of balance between the demand side and housing supply through more funding for the housing supply side and providing support for the construction of more homes and making supply Housing is more responsive to changes in demand, encouraging private sector participation in supporting the housing market. Certainly, there is a need to reduce the spatial disparity in the distribution of housing investments between the Iraqi governorates to block the way for any reverse migration towards Baghdad Governorate, which constitutes great pressure on the volume of demand for housing, which pushes prices to rise in light of the weak flexibility of the supply side.

Housing is considered one of the basic necessities in the lives of individuals, as its importance comes among life priorities. Due to the large and rapid population increase that occurred in recent decades and the accompanying large-scale migration from rural areas to city centers, which led to an increased demand for housing units and a limited supply, which created a gap between supply and demand for housing, and the lack of distribution of land over Individuals within society, in addition to the decrease in financial investment allocations directed to investment in residential projects as a result of the circumstances and wars that Iraq has experienced during recent decades, has led to an expansion of the gap between supply and demand for housing. From here, the housing problem emerged in Iraq and began to become more complex due to weak financing policies and the scarcity of financial resources allocated to the housing sector, which generates weak investment in the housing sector, whether by the public sector or by the private sector.

To finance its expenditures, the government relies on multiple sources, such as taxes, revenues from public projects if there are projects owned by the government that operate economically efficiently, open market operations, and cash issuance revenues achieved from issuing the new currency.
In this study, we attempt to clarify whether the government can resort to the proceeds of monetary issuance to finance its expenditures under the currency board system, which is the extreme form of exchange rate systems

The geographical diversity of Safeen Mountain consists of rock units, topography, water resources, and types of soil. The rock units consist of limestone, goldstone, dolomite limestone, madly limestone, marl, siltstone, and conglomerates. Classify the soil type into sandy and clay soils. And that using the technique of neural fuzzy systems to forecast is considered one of the new techniques used in our current era and an alternative to the traditional statistical methods.
There is no difference in the results obtained using the technique of neural fuzzy systems and the proposed neural fuzzy systems, but only a difference in the time it takes to implement the algorithm. It is characterized by the accuracy of its final results through the speed of implementation, and this is a good indicator that enhances the quality of the method of proposed neural fuzzy systems. It is possible to rely on the proposed neural fuzzy systems for forecasting the layers of the earth in other regions.

This study delves into the underlying dynamics and causes of Iraq's real estate price bubble, focusing on key parameters such as real estate factors, government policies, economic indicators, and societal trends. Drawing on comprehensive data from the past decade, the analysis was carried out using a sample of 65 real estate professionals and stakeholders in Iraq's major urban centers. Sophisticated statistical tools, including SPSS V.25 and Smart PLS, were employed to analyze the data, pinpointing factors like real estate demand-supply dynamics, lending practices, and economic policies.
The study unveiled that a combination of rapid urbanization, speculative investments, lax lending practices, and certain government policies contributed to the inflation of property prices, leading to the current bubble. Additionally, the study underscores the potential repercussions of this bubble on Iraq's broader economy and housing affordability for its citizens. Recommendations are proposed, emphasizing the need for more stringent lending criteria, transparent property valuation practices, and government interventions to stabilize the market and prevent a potential crash.

This study examines the relationship between trade openness, financial Stability, and economic growth in Russia, India, and South Africa using time-series data from 1988 to 2022. The analysis employs the Johansen co-integration test (JCT), vector error correction model (VECM), and Wald Granger causality (WGC) approaches. The findings reveal a long-term relationship among trade openness, financial Stability, and economic growth in all three countries. In the long run, Russia and South Africa exhibit unidirectional causality from financial stability and trade openness to economic growth, while India displays bidirectional causality. In the short run, trade openness shows no direct causal relation with growth, and a weak causal link exists between financial Stability and economic growth in Russia and South Africa. No significant short-term causal relations are observed in India. Based on these findings, the study recommends fostering both trade openness and financial Stability in India, prioritizing financial sector reforms for stability in Russia and South Africa, and focusing on policies that reduce trade barriers and enhance trade infrastructure to stimulate economic growth.

In the recent economic literature, there has been a great deal of discussion about the impact of public debt on investment. Many economists and other observers have viewed the public debt as harmful to the economy. The supposed harmful impacts include crowding out of investment due to raising interest rates. This paper re-examines the real impact of public debt on investment in Iraq. A time series analysis for the period between 2004 and 2019 has been used. It applies the ARCH model co-integration framework based on data from the central bank of Iraq, the World Bank, previous studies, etc. Based on the analysis as well as the results reached, it has been shown that there is a positive impact of public debt on total investment in Iraq, suggesting that reasonable levels of borrowing by a developing country are likely to enhance its economic growth and investment. This relation is different from other factors taken in this study, including inflation, GDP, and interest rates