Abstract
Background: Youth unemployment presents a significant
threat to Nigeria’s socioeconomic stability, resulting in widespread issues such
as poverty, insecurity, banditry, inequality, and robbery. Objective: In this
paper, mathematical modelling for the control of unemployment in Nigeria
incorporating vocational education and apprenticeship was formulated. The
model equilibrium points were obtained and the local stability analysis was carried
out. Methods: The basic reproduction number Re was computed using
the Next Generation Matrix technique and used to determine whether unemployment
will persist or be eradicated in Nigeria. Sensitivity analysis was
carried out to determine the most sensitive parameters. Results: Numerical
simulations were presented in a graphical form to show the effects of sensitive
parameters on the reproduction number. The stability analysis shows that unemployment
will be eradicated in Nigeria if Re ≤ 1. It was revealed from the
sensitivity analysis that the theoretical education graduate employment rate,
γ is the most sensitive parameter with −0.9883 and the rate of transition of
becoming highly skilled due to vocational education, β is the least sensitive
parameter with −0.0409. Conclusions: It was shown from the sensitivity
analysis and the graphical presentation that the theoretical education graduate
employment rate, γ is the most sensitive negative parameter which will
decrease the reproduction number. This implies that when employment is created
for the graduates from the higher institutions the unemployment rate will
reduce drastically from the society. It is recommended that the government and
the private sector owners should create more job for the graduates. Optimal
control analysis is recommended for future research to determine the minimal
cost for the increase graduate employment rate and motivation of vocational
education
threat to Nigeria’s socioeconomic stability, resulting in widespread issues such
as poverty, insecurity, banditry, inequality, and robbery. Objective: In this
paper, mathematical modelling for the control of unemployment in Nigeria
incorporating vocational education and apprenticeship was formulated. The
model equilibrium points were obtained and the local stability analysis was carried
out. Methods: The basic reproduction number Re was computed using
the Next Generation Matrix technique and used to determine whether unemployment
will persist or be eradicated in Nigeria. Sensitivity analysis was
carried out to determine the most sensitive parameters. Results: Numerical
simulations were presented in a graphical form to show the effects of sensitive
parameters on the reproduction number. The stability analysis shows that unemployment
will be eradicated in Nigeria if Re ≤ 1. It was revealed from the
sensitivity analysis that the theoretical education graduate employment rate,
γ is the most sensitive parameter with −0.9883 and the rate of transition of
becoming highly skilled due to vocational education, β is the least sensitive
parameter with −0.0409. Conclusions: It was shown from the sensitivity
analysis and the graphical presentation that the theoretical education graduate
employment rate, γ is the most sensitive negative parameter which will
decrease the reproduction number. This implies that when employment is created
for the graduates from the higher institutions the unemployment rate will
reduce drastically from the society. It is recommended that the government and
the private sector owners should create more job for the graduates. Optimal
control analysis is recommended for future research to determine the minimal
cost for the increase graduate employment rate and motivation of vocational
education
Keywords
Unemployment; Vocational education; Apprenticeship;Stability analysis; Sensitivity analysis