Iraqi Journal For Economic Sciences

This research work presents a growth scenario within a macroeconomic framework for Iraq towards 2040. Drawing on worldwide patterns of growth and benchmarks of successful economic development, a set of quantitative norms has been adopted to simulate alternative courses of investment and growth. Considering the current state of oil revenue, potentialities of oil market, and non-oil production capabilities in Iraq, the scenario concluded at 8.04 %, as the annual rate of growth for the non- oil GDP and 6.81% for the overall economy. The paper elaborates on the significant changes that required in the sectoral output structure, through accelerated development of non-oil commodity activities. Therefore, structural impediments of Dutch disease, inefficiency of public sector investment programs, and passivity of bureaucracy should be removed. Although, increased global competition and technological change have made it more difficult for Iraq to industrialize, but there are no alternative routes to prosperity. Furthermore, the demand for foreign exchange and government expenditure are calculated based on alternative assumptions to close the two gaps by non-oil exports and new sources of revenue. The paper demonstrates the path of investment in terms of Gross Fixed Capital Formulation (GFCF) in oil and non – oil sector, which in the latter represent 36% of its GDP on average, and overall GFCF level will reach 27% of GDP. Furthermore, the growth has been analyzed and assessed by another model and the results are supporting. Also, internal rates of returns are deduced for better choice of public investment projects and capital budgeting control.

The importance of this topic highlights the fact that the relationship of Okun law is characterized by simplicity, because it includes only two important macroeconomic variables, and this relationship, also, has practical support. While, the importance of this research lies in that it deals with the possibility of using this law as a useful predictive tool for makers of monetary policy, wondering whether it is a reliable and stable relationship over time, across the business cycle, and across countries.
The research aims to give an extended view about what this law images, its applied implications for monetary policy, and the possibility of using it as a predictive tool to draw of future monetary policy parameters, in addition to the statement of its relationship with Phillips curve, and highlights the lost output due to unemployment.
The research presents the following hypothesis: The inverse relationship between unemployment and the level of output, when achieved, can be used to predict future monetary policy formation.
The research is being divided into several sections to give an idea about the concept of Okun law, its public form, and the possibility of its interpretation, in addition to its applied implications regarding the implementation of monetary policy, through the use of that law as an effective and accurate predictive tool to determine the situation of the monetary policy in the future.
The research follows the methodology of theoretical and quantitative analysis to clarify this law, and its implications under the applied framework. The research identifies two countries, with varying levels of economic development in comparison, the United States and Iraq, as a spatial framework for research, over a period of time from 1984 to 2015, as a time frame for research.
The research reached the realization of the hypothesis of research, only on the United States, to achieve the condition of the inverse relationship (coefficient β negative, i.e. the extent of the unemployment response to the changes in output) between the variables of the law. As for Iraq, the law does not apply to the same year, but a slowdown of one year, as confirmed by the ARDL model.

The financial crisis in the Kurdistan region has emerged, as a result of the so-called political crisis. The real start of the financial crisis was the imposition of a compulsory saving system on the salaries of employees. This has negatively impacted all economic sectors, especially the family sector, which led to decrease the prices of consumer goods, especially prices of semi - durable consumer goods in the markets of the city of Erbil. where the results indicated that:
1- The study included the prices of (11) groups of shops for the sale of ready-made women’s garments in Erbil city, and that all the commodity group with relative importance (100%) changed their prices downward.
2 - The decline in prices by (-27.54%) of the average prices for women\'s ready clothing, after the financial crisis, compared to the average prices of women\'s ready clothing, before the financial crisis.
3. The Turkish women\'s clothing category ranked first, with relative importance (67.96%). China ranked second, with 17.48%. This is evidence of the dumping of 85.44% by Erbil markets.
4- The percentage of (0.97%) is the share of local production in the markets of ready-made garments in the shops of Erbil city.
The research reached a number of proposals:
1- Encourage the local production, especially the production of ready-made garments, through the participation of the private sector in opening garment factories and protecting them from competing foreign ready-made garments, especially the Turkish and Chinese ones.
2 - Re-operation of local production plants and modern technology, as well as protect them from foreign competition in the Kurdistan Region.
3. Re-establish the consumer cooperatives for employees, in order to meet the basic needs of employees of food and clothing in the Kurdistan Region.
4.Working to reduce the tax burden on sewing shops for women and men, in order to continue their profession in the Kurdistan Region

Iraqi economy is suffering from a lot of problems and almost all the indicators of its performance are in the lowest ranks, as a result of deterioration of its infrastructures, low production and productivity, high unemployment rates, the country is no longer able to attract capital or retain the local and foreign investors, competencies, talents, skills and creativity, as well as the corruption and the low of transparency index in business.The collapse of oil prices and expensive war costs against the terrorist organizations may be a good opportunity to think about creation of non-oil revenues in Iraq, but this requires that the government must make all possible efforts to reform the public sector, develop the private sector and strengthening of civil society organizations. In our opinion, this is the way to the economic reform and everyone must understand the gravity of the situation which require working together and cooperate instead of competition and differences to reform the imbalance in order to achieve prosperity and progress.

Transition appeared towards globalization in the light of the rapid, successive and profound changes in the global implications and future directions, particularly witnessed the last quarter of the past twentieth century. The global economy is already turning to the small village of rival parties by the technological revolution and informatics. Things did not stop this limit as the modern global development and attest the world from the control of the new globalization, which calls for free trade and ease the exchange of goods, ideas and experiences and travels almost beyond the concept of the nation-state and the protection of national products and suffered from fiscal and tax policies to achieve it. Globalization, and the subsequent international integration, along with the rapid technological advances affect on the ability of countries in the collection of taxes, and the distribution of the burdens, it is also likely that "there is an impact of globalization over time on tax revenues, and there has been a notable shift from specific taxes to sales taxes during the nineties as the impact of globalization appeared to emerge even more sharply with the liberalization of capital markets and increasing integration of economies. One of the main conclusions reached by the research is that the globalization with all their attendant technical advances, open markets and trade liberalization etc. ... threaten the states that have not accelerated to re-structure institutions to produce competitive goods to protect our economy from dependence. One of the main recommendations of the research is that the advancement of human resources to support growth in all economic and industrial sectors and banks as a way that harmonizes the requirements of globalization.

There is no doubt that the economic crisis experienced by the Kurdistan region of Iraq since early 2014 has a significant impact on scientific education in the Kurdistan region. University students are also affected by this crisis, because many of them depend on their families to secure the study expenses.
However, the delay and the delay in paying the salaries of the regional employees is a great burden on the living conditions of their families, and therefore the difficulty of securing these expenses which will greatly hinder the students to continue their education, forcing dozens of students to leave school or postpone their academic year.
Most university students take advantage of their free time to work. (Part-time work), in a manner that contributes to reducing the expense burden, and that the work of students holds many of the negative effects and that the students should pay attention to it because it might affect their scientific performance.
The research has reached a number of results, the most important of which is that the students living in the dormitory, mainly, suffer from economic problems like cutting the monthly government allocations for college students and paying tuition fees and dormitory fees, as well as service and social problems, and these problems which related to the geographic location of the dormitory.