Iraqi Journal For Economic Sciences

The Iraqi economy depends largely on oil revenues, as these revenues contributed about 70% of public revenues during the research period and more than 90% of the state's general budget. Fluctuations in crude oil prices affect the Iraqi economy which depends almost entirely on the oil sector. Therefore, the research aimed to know the extent of the Iraqi economy's dependence on crude oil revenues in the period (2016-2023), to reveal the economic effects due to oil price fluctuations during that period on the indicators of the Iraqi economy, and to present proposals to find solutions to reduce the Iraqi economy's dependence on oil revenues. The research used the descriptive analytical approach and concluded that it is possible to reduce the Iraqi economy’s dependence on oil revenues through practical applicable solutions.
المقدمة:

The research sought to show the level of banking culture of customers and its impact on the volume of banking transactions and deposits. The research problem is represented by the decrease in dealing with banks, in addition to the existence of a difference in the opinions of respondents about the reasons for the decrease in dealing with commercial banks, which is directly reflected in the size of bank deposits. This research gains its importance by stating the factors affecting the level of banking culture and what will be reflected in individuals' dealings with banks for a better level. In general, the research attempts to answer the main question: What is the level of banking culture enjoyed by customers? What are the factors affecting the level of their banking culture? Does the level of banking culture of customers affect the volume of dealings and bank deposits? The research was based on five main hypotheses that show the relationship of influence and variance between their variables. To test the validity of these hypotheses, a questionnaire was designed in line with the objectives of the research. 65 questionnaires were distributed to customers of commercial banks in the city of Dohuk. The number of valid questionnaires for analysis was (54) questionnaires, and they were analyzed using the computer program (SPSS-18). The research concluded that bank customers do not have a good level of banking culture due to their weak confidence in these banks, and concluded that there is a significant impact of banking culture variables on the volume of transactions and bank deposits. Based on the conclusions, the research presented a set of proposals, the most important of which is the need to spread awareness among customers by increasing their confidence in the operating banks through their confidence in the quality of services provided and working to meet the needs of customers.

The research aimed to measure the impact of oil exports on achieving economic growth in Iraq during the period (1993/2022) given that oil exports in Iraq are considered one of the most important public revenues in the Iraqi economy, which makes them play a major and important role in achieving economic growth. In this context, the research was divided into two sections. The first section dealt with the "theoretical framework", which included concepts about economic growth (definition, types, influencing factors, and the relationship between exports and growth), while the second section, the "applied framework", dealt with measuring the impact of oil exports on economic growth in Iraq during the period 1993-2022. The research concluded that multiple factors affect the achievement of economic growth, such as the element of labour, capital, and the availability of natural resources, in addition to the necessity of achieving security and political stability in the country, which is reflected in increasing production, investment, and exports that achieve economic growth. The research also concluded that there is a direct relationship with statistical significance between oil exports and economic growth in Iraq in both the long and short term and that successive Iraqi governments after 2003 until the end of the research were unable to achieve the required economic diversification for the export structure. The research also recommended the necessity of working to achieve economic diversification from the current growth model in Iraq, which is based on oil exports as a main source of exports and revenues in the country, to balance development in all productive sectors, whether agricultural, industrial, or otherwise.

All sectors and fields are affected by rapid developments and changes in technology, which greatly affects labour supply and demand, as well as wage levels, productivity and work efficiency in companies and projects, especially in unemployment rates. To diagnose the factors affecting unemployment rates in (5) leading countries in the robotics industry, including (China, Japan, the United States of America, South Korea, and Germany) during the period (2000-2023), a regression was conducted on the unemployment rate as a dependent variable on (3) independent variables (number of robots, population, GDP at constant prices) affecting the unemployment rate for the selected countries using the (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag ARDL) method for each country separately and the (PMG- ARDL) model for the selected countries combined. After that, the selected model was subjected to theoretical, statistical and standard criteria to analyze and evaluate the results
obtained. In general, it was found that robots and GDP have a positive effect in reducing unemployment rates for both the long and short-term periods for all countries, but at varying rates. That is, these two determinants contribute to reducing unemployment rates, while the results showed that the population has a negative effect in reducing unemployment rates, that is, it contributes to increasing unemployment rates for the selected countries. In light of these conclusions, the research proposes several proposals, including that governments, specifically in selected countries, as well as decision-makers and business owners, conduct in-depth studies on the impact of using robots in terms of the principle of economic and social benefit and cost, instead of relying excessively on production and use of robots. It should also take into account current and future economic, social and demographic conditions when making decisions regarding the number and type of robots and the fields and activities in which they are used, to ensure effective benefit for the individual, society and the national economy in general.

There is a relationship between communication media and price levels, as each affects the other. While increasing demand for communication media contributes to increasing price levels, we find on the other hand that increasing price levels limits demand for communication media. This research is an attempt to show the relationship between communication media and price levels. To reach this, the research relied on a questionnaire taken from students, professors and employees of Al-Mustafa University College as a sample for this research, considering that students, professors and employees are all in clear contact with communication media, as they all rely heavily on these media in regular communication, in addition to communication to accomplish some scientific, administrative and social tasks through these media. The research relied on the analytical approach in tracking the developments of social communication media through the different stages and showing the mutual reflections between these two variables in Iraq during the research period. The research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that the relationship between communication media and price levels is very close, whether before or after the stage that preceded 2003, as the prices of communication media before 2003 were high as a result of economic factors. And politically, but after 2003, these prices also continued to rise due to some economic factors, perhaps the most important of which is the poor distribution of income, the instability of economic policy, and its tendency to encourage public jobs and not give the private sector the necessary attention which provided cash liquidity for the general public that did not come from real national production, which encouraged many to spend on non-essential areas, including social media, in a lavish manner, which contributed to raising price levels.

This research aims to analyze the imbalance of the general budget structure and the impact of this imbalance on internal economic stability. To achieve this research the deductive approach was used with the help of the descriptive analytical method to analyze the data related to the structure of the general budget for both public revenues and public expenditures and to analyze the indicators of internal economic stability in terms of unemployment rates and inflation rates. The conclusion was reached that the imbalance in the structure of the general budget negatively affects economic stability in light of the reliance on oil revenues as a determinant of the structure of the general budget revenues. Accordingly, we see the necessity of resorting to correcting the structure of the general budget by diversifying the structure of public revenues and raising the percentages of investment spending contribution as a basis for effective structural correction, which leads to raising the rates of real growth rates in the economy

The direct and indirect impacts on the basic pillars of food security in the GCC countries as a result of the international economic crises have left a food gap in the GCC countries, and therefore this gap must be reduced. The inductive and deductive approach was used to present the economic facts of the Gulf food security situation, the descriptive and analytical approach to the reality of economic activities and events, the level of food and its components, and the standard approach to review studies related to trade policies and gross domestic product, and to analyze variables for the past period and to clarify the role of trade policy in the structure of the gross domestic product, and to evaluate the policies practised by the GCC countries in the previous period, which described the concepts of food security. The analysis of the food security problem for the GCC countries clarified the adoption of a policy strategy that identified food sources according to international trade and the benefits and risks associated with it, after the liberalization of intra-country trade. It became clear that it is possible to convert resources into the production of non-food export crops and the import of basic food needs. The GCC countries must advance the agricultural sector by developing clear agricultural strategies and policies, encouraging investments in developing the agricultural sector introducing modern technology, and overcoming the problem of water scarcity using advanced technologies. Working to achieve self-sufficiency to support the economies of the GCC countries instead of relying on imports and the economies of other countries, in addition to strengthening the general budget with billions of dollars, contributes to diversifying the economy, achieving stability and increasing production.

The research aims to estimate the impact of the trade shock on both sides of exports and imports on the Iraqi GDP during the period (2004-2022), using the impulse response functions (IRF) to clarify the extent of the GDP's response to the occurrence of the trade shock in the Iraqi economy. Therefore, descriptive and inferential analysis was relied upon on the one hand, and on the other hand, standard analysis was used to estimate the most appropriate model to diagnose the impact of this shock on the output. The research found that the exports variable had a positive impact on the Iraqi GDP by 57.9%, as a result of the occurrence of any positive trade shock on the exports side due to the rise in crude oil prices, which will be reflected positively on the GDP. The impact of the imports variable shock was also positive on the GDP by 9.7%, due to the association of most imports with the pattern The behaviour of the Iraqi consumer, who may not be affected much by changes in the prices of imported goods. Also, the results of the impulse response functions (IRF) of the ARDL model showed that in the event of a trade shock to the export side, it will lead to a positive change in GDP, after which the output stabilizes in the seventh year of the trade shock. As for the trade shock to the import side, the GDP will change positively, but at a lower level than the shock in exports, after which the GDP stabilizes between the fifth and sixth years of the trade shock.

The research seeks to review in detail the development of government spending on education for a sample of Arab countries(Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar) and for a time series extending over the period(2002-2012), as government spending on education is a large part of investment in countries, which leads to improving human capital represented by education using tabular data, tables and charts that consist of two models, the first of which focused on spending on education as a percentage of total spending and the second on spending on education as a percentage of the gross domestic product. The results showed that there was no significance in both Saudi Arabia and Egypt and that there was significance in the State of Qatar, which reflects the weakness and fluctuation of spending on education in both countries in the specified years. The research concludes with a set of conclusions and recommendations.

The study aims to clarify the concept of (currency selling window), as well as to know the relationship between the currency auction and the exchange rate in the Iraqi economy for the period (2004-2022) using Granger causality. As for the research hypothesis, it answered the study question that the currency-selling window in the Central Bank of Iraq has a direct impact on the parallel exchange rate. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which was that there is a causal relationship in one direction from the currency purchase window variable from the Ministry of Finance (p1) towards the parallel exchange rate (1EX). The study concluded with a set of recommendations, the most important of which is working on diversifying sources of income by activating other sectors (industry, agriculture, trade, tourism) and working to reduce dependence on oil revenues because it is a source that is constantly exposed to shocks and relying on other sources (such as fees and taxes) with knowledge of the works imposed on it to avoid harming the poor class.

The exchange rate is one of the economic variables used in economic policies to achieve economic stability, as changes in exchange rates affect most monetary, financial and real variables. This study aims to analyze the effects of changing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate on domestic and foreign investment during the period (2003-2023). To achieve this goal, the study relied on the descriptive and analytical approach that relies on time series data and the dynamic least squares (DLOS) model to show the effects of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate on foreign direct investment and domestic investment. Each of these (interest rate on loans, economic growth rate, and security and political instability) was used as auxiliary variables. Finally, the study reached several conclusions, including: There is a positive relationship between the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, foreign direct investment and domestic investment, i.e.: The standard results showed that there is a positive relationship between the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, domestic investment and foreign investment. This positive effect is due to the policies of the Central Bank of Iraq and its attempts to achieve monetary stability. However, the effect of the exchange rate on domestic investment was greater compared to foreign investment due to the heavy reliance on imports and the impact of currency fluctuations on production costs. Foreign investment is often less affected by currency fluctuations due to its ability to hedge financially and focus on foreign markets. The study suggested that adopting a flexible exchange rate regime alone cannot be a successful solution to attract foreign investment. Rather, attention must be paid to the major economic balances, the stability of which is a prerequisite for attracting investment. General economic stability, including inflation, fiscal deficit, and public debt levels, plays a crucial role in enhancing the confidence of foreign investors. Without achieving this stability, a flexible exchange rate regime may become ineffective in achieving its economic objectives.

The topic of education is one of the most important economic topics that are prominent and greatly influential on economic growth and economic stability, given the importance of this variable on the level of household income, which represents two crucial elements in the foundations of economic welfare in any society. The problem of the study includes how the educational level affects the monthly household income in the Kurdistan Region and how to measure it. Therefore, the study aimed to determine the nature of the relationship between educational level and family income levels in the Kurdistan Region - by using the Mincer model to compare the governorates in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Several conclusions were reached, the most important of which was that the model is acceptable and statistically significant, as the significance value is less than 5%. This means that the model consisting of the independent variables and their effect on the logarithm of the dependent variable is acceptable and explains a good percentage and the R-squared values are acceptable and predictable. Also, the values of the variance are a good percentage of the monthly income of the family in each governorate, and we conclude that in all governorates there is a direct effect with statistical significance for the number of years of education completed on the monthly income of the family. This is in line with economic theory. Based on these results, it will be necessary to develop the skills required in the labour market and provide financial support for students facing financial difficulties to help them reduce the financial burden on families.

This research attempts to identify the nature of the impact of the general budget deficit in Iraq on the foreign exchange rate during the period(2004-2021)by using econometrics using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL)method. The research found an inverse relationship between the budget deficit to the dollar exchange rate, as an increase in the budget deficit by(1%(will lead to a reduction in the exchange rate by(0.01%)This explains the failure of successive Iraqi governments to use the principle of changing the exchange rate to confront the budget deficit except in a few years of the research period, in addition to the fact that changes in the official exchange rate are related to the type of exchange system, which is a managed system linked to administrative decisions. Increasing the window gap by(1%)will reduce the exchange rate by(0.002%)The researcher also recommended that the general budget deficit should be stabilized at an acceptable level, and this is done by relying on an automatic method represented by the ratio of revenues to the gross domestic product as a dynamic stabilizer, to reduce the adverse effect from the deficit to the foreign exchange rate, in addition to adopting several financial reforms to restructure the general budget and reduce the dependence of budget revenues on the oil sector, and encourage exports by providing a suitable climate for investment and supporting it by raising customs taxes on imported goods.
المقدمة:

The research sought to clarify the level of banking culture of dealers and its impact on the volume of transactions and bank deposits. The research problem is represented by the decrease in dealing with banks, in addition to the existence of a difference in the opinions of respondents about the reasons for the decrease in dealing with commercial banks, which is directly reflected in the size of bank deposits. This research gains its importance by stating the factors affecting the level of banking culture and what will be reflected in individuals' dealings with banks for a better level. In general, the research attempts to answer the main question: What is the level of banking culture enjoyed by customers? What are the factors affecting the level of their banking culture? Does the level of banking culture of customers affect the volume of dealings and bank deposits? The research was based on five main hypotheses that show the relationship of influence and variance between their variables. To test the validity of these hypotheses, a questionnaire was designed in line with the objectives of the research. 65 questionnaires were distributed to customers of commercial banks in the city of Dohuk. The number of valid questionnaires for analysis was (54) questionnaires, and they were analyzed using the computer program (SPSS-18). The research concluded that bank customers do not have a good level of banking culture due to their weak confidence in these banks, and concluded that there is a significant impact of banking culture variables on the volume of transactions and bank deposits. Based on the conclusions, the research presented a set of proposals, the most important of which is the need to spread awareness among customers by increasing their confidence in the operating banks through their confidence in the quality of services provided and working to meet the needs of customers

The whole world is facing the risks of climate change and its major repercussions on the economic side, which has begun to change the trend of the linear economy to the circular economy. Therefore, amid international economic problems and the cracks that have begun to grow over time in the field of regional blocs, some countries of the world have addressed the climate file and have had good fingerprints in the field of transition from the linear economy to the circular economy to reduce pollution and toxic gases that have contributed to environmental pollution. Based on this problem, the research aimed to monitor the indicators through which Sweden has proven its steps in transitioning from the linear economy to the circular economy, improving the climate and supporting the goals of sustainable development. The research concluded that most of the transition indicators proved the transition only in the aspect of waste recycling, while the other aspect remained without tangible steps, which is water recycling. Therefore, the research recommended paying attention to projects related to water recycling and mobilizing financing channels towards it and even green investments that support environmental sustainability.

Monetary policy depends on many means and operational goals to achieve its ultimate goals, such as price stability, employment, etc., and the latter may be the interest rate bank reserves or the use of the exchange rate as in Iraq. This research deals with the impact of the operational objective of monetary policy in Iraq, represented by the exchange rate, on the unemployment rate. The research adopts a hypothesis that there is a long-term non-linear relationship between the exchange rate and the unemployment rate in Iraq. The research aims to analyze and measure the relationship between the official exchange rate and the unemployment rate and the extent of the impact of a shock in the exchange rate on the unemployment rate in Iraq. The importance of the research lies in its demonstration of the impact of the operational objective of monetary policy in Iraq, represented by the official exchange rate, on the unemployment rate, which gives a clearer picture of the positives and negatives of each change in the official exchange rate and the extent of its impact on the unemployment rate. The method used in the research is the standard method using the (NARDL) model. This research is divided into two sections. The first section is devoted to studying the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and unemployment, and the second section is devoted to measuring and analyzing the impact of the exchange rate on the unemployment rate in Iraq.

The research aims to analyze the relationship between corruption and investment, as well as to estimate the impact of economic corruption on private local investment in Iraq for the period (2004-2021) using the NARDL model. The most important conclusions reached by the researcher are to prove the research hypothesis, which is the existence of a long-term non-linear inverse relationship between economic corruption and private local investment in Iraq. The most important recommendations reached by the researcher are the necessity of involving private local investment in the development process and benefiting from the resources of this sector, providing an appropriate environment for the growth of private local investment and developing it to lead development in the future, and preparing the basic infrastructure necessary to launch investment projects.

This study deals with the impact of growth rates of some economic indicators in Iraq such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, income inequality and political stability index, with the changes in the terrorism index TI during the period 2000-2020. Then, predict the annual terrorism index for Iraq using the ARAM model. The results showed that terrorism increased by 60% in 2003, causing the GDP to decrease to 36.7%. Terrorist threats in Iraq increased after 2014, causing the unemployment rate to increase by 20% in 2017 and income inequality to increase by 12%. Political stability reached its lowest point in 2011, with a decrease of 17.4%. Overall, the average growth of terrorism increased by 3.6%, causing fluctuations in the average rates of GDP, inflation, income inequality, and unemployment to increase. According to the estimated ARMA model the one-year lag of the terrorism index, AR (1), is found to be significant at the 1% level. This means that the longer the one-year lag of the terrorism index, the higher the terrorism index by 0.93 points, with other factors remaining constant. The terrorism
index is expected to slowly decline over the next eight years after 2020.

Small Projects play vital roles in the economy, which are usually useful in achieving macroeconomic objectives. The research problem arises by asking how the relationship between the monetary authority and banks as a donor and Small Projects as a recipient can be organized and the nature of the relationship between them. The research aims to address the role of monetary policy in financing Small Projects. Therefore, this study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy on financing small enterprises in Iraq, which extends from 2004 to 2023. The time series data were subjected to the unit root test to ensure the stability of variables. The results of ARDL showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between the indicators of the monetary authority and financing Small Projects in the Iraqi economy. The result revealed that the interest rate has a positive effect on financing small enterprises. On the other hand, it was found that the inflation rate has an effect, but negatively, on financing Small Projects. It was found that the money supply and the exchange rate are important in influencing financing Small Projects. Based on these results, the study recommends that the monetary authority should give greater role and importance to small projects in different sectors by establishing financing funds, especially through different financial institutions, to provide low interest rates. This will enhance business growth and thus achieve the macroeconomic objectives.