Abstract
Traffic incidents dont only cause various levels of traffic congestion but
often contribute to traffic accidents and secondary accidents, resulting in substantial loss of
life, economy, and productivity loss in terms of injuries and deaths, increased travel times
and delays, and excessive consumption of energy and air pollution. Therefore, it is essential
to accurately estimate the duration of the incident to mitigate these effects. Traffic
management center incident logs and traffic sensors data from Eastbound Interstate 70 (I-
70) in Missouri, United States collected during the period from January 2015 to January
2017, with a total of 352 incident records were used to develop incident duration estimation
models. This paper investigated different machine learning (ML) methods for traffic
incidents duration prediction. The attempted ML techniques include Support Vector
Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Neural Network Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP).
Root mean squared error (RMSE) and Mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate
the performance of these models. The results showed that the performance of the models
was comparable with SVM models slightly outperforms the RF, and MLP models in terms
of MAE index, where MAE was 14.23 min for the best-performing SVM models. Whereas,
in terms of the RMSE index, RF models slightly outperformed the other two models given
RMSE of 18.91 min for the best-performing RF model.
often contribute to traffic accidents and secondary accidents, resulting in substantial loss of
life, economy, and productivity loss in terms of injuries and deaths, increased travel times
and delays, and excessive consumption of energy and air pollution. Therefore, it is essential
to accurately estimate the duration of the incident to mitigate these effects. Traffic
management center incident logs and traffic sensors data from Eastbound Interstate 70 (I-
70) in Missouri, United States collected during the period from January 2015 to January
2017, with a total of 352 incident records were used to develop incident duration estimation
models. This paper investigated different machine learning (ML) methods for traffic
incidents duration prediction. The attempted ML techniques include Support Vector
Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Neural Network Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP).
Root mean squared error (RMSE) and Mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate
the performance of these models. The results showed that the performance of the models
was comparable with SVM models slightly outperforms the RF, and MLP models in terms
of MAE index, where MAE was 14.23 min for the best-performing SVM models. Whereas,
in terms of the RMSE index, RF models slightly outperformed the other two models given
RMSE of 18.91 min for the best-performing RF model.
Keywords
Incident Duration
Neural Network Multi-Layer Perceptron
Random Forest
Support Vector Machine.