Abstract
Abstract
Analyzing the relationship between the financial indicators of the bank and the volume of its stock trading is of great importance in enhancing financial sustainability, supporting investment decisions, stimulating economic growth, and guiding economic policies to support sustainable growth. Therefore, the research problem was framed through the following questions: What is the relationship between the financial indicators of the bank in the Iraq Stock Exchange and the volume of its stock trading? To what extent can the bank's financial indicators affect attracting investors and thus increase trading volume? Does the rise or fall in the bank's performance act as a significant factor in increasing the volume of stock trading? Based on this, the research aims to analyze the
quantitative relationship between the financial indicators represented by two variables (earnings per share ratio, asset turnover rate) and the volume of stock trading for the bank listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, which is the Iraqi Commercial Bank, for the period (2005-2022), and to understand the reasons for the change in trading volume in addition to identifying which financial indicators most significantly affect the volume of stock trading. A hypothesis was formulated suggesting that there is a relationship between the bank's financial indicators and the volume of its stock trading, as an increase in financial indicators will lead to an increase in trading volume. To achieve the study's objective, economic analysis and modern econometric methods were employed, including (unit root testing for time series, determining optimal lag lengths, cointegration testing, estimating the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and causality testing (Toda Yamamoto). The results of the causality test indicate that the relationship between all financial indicators and the trading volume of the Iraqi Commercial Bank is significant.
Analyzing the relationship between the financial indicators of the bank and the volume of its stock trading is of great importance in enhancing financial sustainability, supporting investment decisions, stimulating economic growth, and guiding economic policies to support sustainable growth. Therefore, the research problem was framed through the following questions: What is the relationship between the financial indicators of the bank in the Iraq Stock Exchange and the volume of its stock trading? To what extent can the bank's financial indicators affect attracting investors and thus increase trading volume? Does the rise or fall in the bank's performance act as a significant factor in increasing the volume of stock trading? Based on this, the research aims to analyze the
quantitative relationship between the financial indicators represented by two variables (earnings per share ratio, asset turnover rate) and the volume of stock trading for the bank listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, which is the Iraqi Commercial Bank, for the period (2005-2022), and to understand the reasons for the change in trading volume in addition to identifying which financial indicators most significantly affect the volume of stock trading. A hypothesis was formulated suggesting that there is a relationship between the bank's financial indicators and the volume of its stock trading, as an increase in financial indicators will lead to an increase in trading volume. To achieve the study's objective, economic analysis and modern econometric methods were employed, including (unit root testing for time series, determining optimal lag lengths, cointegration testing, estimating the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and causality testing (Toda Yamamoto). The results of the causality test indicate that the relationship between all financial indicators and the trading volume of the Iraqi Commercial Bank is significant.
Abstract
ان تحليل العلاقة بين المؤشرات المالية للمصرف وحجم تداول اسهمه له اهمية كبيرة في تعزيز الاستدامة المالية، دعم القرارات الاستثمارية، تحفيز النمو الاقتصادي وتوجيه السياسات الاقتصادية لدعم النمو المستدام. وعليه فقد تمثلت مشكلة البحث من خلال طرح التساؤلات الآتية: مدى العلاقة بين المؤشرات المالية للمصرف في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية وحجم تداول أسهمه؟ الى أي مدى يمكن ان تؤثر المؤشرات المالية للمصرف في جذب المستثمرين وبالتالي زيادة حجم التداول؟ هل للارتفاع او الانخفاض في أداء المصرف أن يكون عاملاً مؤثرًا في رفع حجم تداول الاسهم؟ وبناءاً على ذلك فأن البحث يهدف إلى تحليل العلاقة الكمية بين المؤشرات المالية المتمثلة بمتغيرين (نسبة العائد على السهم، معدل دوران الاصول) وحجم تداول الاسهم للمصرف المدرج في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية وهو (المصرف التجاري العراقي) للمدة (2005-2022) وفهم اسباب التغيير في حجم التداول بالإضافة الى بيان أكثر المؤشرات المالية التي تؤثر في حجم تداول الأسهم،. وقد تم وضع فرضية مفادها ان هناك علاقة بين المؤشرات المالية للمصرف وحجم تداول اسهمه، اذ ان ارتفاع المؤشرات المالية ستؤدي إلى زيادة في حجم التداول. ومن أجل تحقيق هدف الدراسة فقد تم استخدام التحليل الاقتصادي واساليب الاقتصاد القياسي الحديث منها(اختبار الاستقرارية للسلاسل الزمنية , ,تحديد مدد الإبطاء المثلى ,اختبار التكامل المشترك ,تقدير نموذج الانحدار الذاتي ((VAR, نموذج تصحيح الخطأ((VECM, اختبار السببية ( Toda Yamamoto) من خلال نتائج اختبار السببية تبين العلاقة بين جميع المؤشرات المالية وحجم التداول للمصرف التجاري العراقي هي معنوية.