Iraqi Journal For Economic Sciences

The size of household income and the ways it is allocated across different uses have clear effects on various aspects of life, household income is an influential variable in the lives of family members, especially in the present time when life pressures have intensified, while social norms have weakened, this has contributed to the emergence of numerous negative social changes that have begun to impose themselves and increase the challenges face families, such as rising divorce rates, youth reluctance to marry, student dropout from schools, and behavioral deviations that are continually increasing , the issue of household income size and its distribution is a common problem, those with low incomes may face negative social changes, and those with financial abundance are also not immune from the negative effects of money. As is evident, a lack of money causes many negative social phenomena, while excessive wealth is also not free from such phenomena, as observed among many affluent families and societies, The problem from which this research originates is tracking the most prominent effects of these phenomena in Baghdad Governorate, as it is the capital of Iraq and hosts many key political and economic centers, The research examines variables during a time period filled with events related to the methods of distributing public money, which had severe impacts on household income for the majority of citizens, leading to or contributing to the emergence of negative social and economic effects, From the findings of the research, it can be concluded that household income distribution and price levels were influential factors in the negative changes. However, the results of the statistical analysis were not highly supportive, as the independent variable (monthly household income) did not show a clear, significant effect. The analysis also indicated stability in the studied phenomena. Therefore, the research recommends including additional mediating variables to enhance the explanatory power of the statistical model, expanding the sample size to include broader areas and social categories, and using more complex analytical models such as regression or path analysis to better understand causal relationships in this field.

The petrochemical industry is considered a modern industry whose importance became evident after World War II, particularly following the extensive extraction and refinement of oil. The petrochemical industry in Saudi Arabia witnessed significant development during the research period from 2010 to 2024, contributing to the diversification of income sources and enhancing the economic welfare of Saudi society. However, this industry faced several challenges, most notably the competitiveness of petrochemical products in global markets. Consequently, Saudi Arabia, through SABIC and Aramco, aims to embrace innovative technologies in the future, supported by the Saudi government’s focus on the petrochemical industry and its efforts to make it a leading sector in the Saudi economy. The researcher concluded that Saudi Arabia is striving to increase its petrochemical production by the year 2030. Based on that, the study confirmed that the petrochemical industry has contributed positively to enhancing economic growth and diversifying sources of income. The research also reached its most important recommendation: the establishment of a cluster for petrochemical producers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in order to promote the exchange of information and expertise among petrochemical producers

This research aims to analyze the structural imbalances in the Iraqi-Syrian trade balance and evaluate the role of governance principles in addressing these imbalances. The study adopts an inductive approach and analytical methodology to examine the bilateral trade relationship between the two countries during the period (2003-2023). The research findings reveal a persistent and structural deficit in the trade balance, primarily attributed to the narrow export base of the Iraqi non-oil economy, which relies heavily on primary commodities with low value-added, alongside the political and economic instability that Iraq has experienced since 2003. The study also highlights the critical role of applying good governance principles — including transparency, accountability, and institutional reform — in addressing the structural imbalances of the trade balance. The research recommends diversifying the Iraqi economy, supporting national industries, developing border crossings, and adopting rational trade policies to reduce the chronic trade deficit with Syria.

The study problem lies in the structural dependency of Iraq's Capital and Financial Accounts on external shocks, coupled with a diminished capacity to attract sustainable investments outside the oil sector. This study aims to analyze the development of these accounts for the period (2004–2023), employing a descriptive-analytical approach based on data from the Central Bank of Iraq and the International Monetary Fund. The study concludes that the Iraqi Financial Account is characterized by a "rentier pattern" that reflects the economy's vulnerability to global price fluctuations, alongside an almost total absence of investments in non-extractive assets. The study recommends the necessity of diversifying capital flows and developing legal frameworks to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into non-oil sectors.

This research evaluates the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), primarily the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), on stimulating Iraq’s non-oil exports from 2010 to 2025. Adopting a descriptive-analytical approach, the study reveals that these agreements have had a limited effect on economic diversification, with the trade balance tilting in favour of imports. The findings highlight that non-tariff barriers, exchange rate volatility, and bureaucracy remain the primary obstacles to global market access. Consequently, the study recommends activating export subsidy policies for the manufacturing and agricultural sectors and upgrading quality infrastructure to ensure local products meet international standards.

This study aims to analyze the dynamics of efficiency and productivity in a sample of private commercial banks in Iraq for the period (2020-2023) using the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI). The research employed a deductive approach with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as the analytical tool to measure productivity changes and decompose them into key components such as technical efficiency and technological change. The results revealed significant fluctuations in bank performance, with productivity sharply declining in 2021 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and falling oil prices, while surging in 2022 as economic conditions improved and investments in technology increased. However, performance declined again in 2023 due to weak technological and structural sustainability. The analysis also highlighted considerable disparities in the performance of individual banks, with some showing notable improvements in efficiency, while others faced structural challenges. The main conclusion indicates that Iraqi private banks' productivity is significantly influenced by external shocks and internal technological capabilities, with limited contribution to sustainable economic development due to structural inefficiencies. The study provides recommendations to enhance banking stability, including increasing investments in financial technology, improving scale efficiency through mergers, and restructuring the administrative frameworks of struggling banks.

This study aims to evaluate the performance of selected private banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange using the Kappa performance measure, which represents a downside risk–adjusted performance model. The research is motivated by the limitations of traditional performance measures—such as standard deviation and the Sharpe ratio—which rely on total volatility and fail to distinguish between upside and downside risk. This limitation is particularly relevant in emerging markets like Iraq, where return distributions are often non-normal and characterized by asymmetric risk. The study is based on monthly return data for a sample of five private banks over a period of 24 months. Monthly returns, average returns, and the risk-free rate were calculated, followed by the estimation of the Lower Partial Moment (LPM) of the first and second orders. Based on these estimates, the Kappa-1 and Kappa-2 ratios were computed using the practical formulation proposed by Kaplan and Knowles (2004). The empirical results reveal noticeable variation in performance across the sampled banks. Some banks recorded positive Kappa values, indicating a stronger ability to compensate investors for downside risk, while others exhibited negative values, reflecting weak risk-adjusted performance. The findings demonstrate that the Kappa model provides a more flexible and realistic framework for evaluating stock performance compared to traditional risk-adjusted measures, particularly in markets characterized by high volatility and downside risk. The study concludes that incorporating downside risk measures such as Kappa can enhance investment decision-making and financial performance evaluation in the Iraqi stock market.

This study aims to measure the causal impact of digital banking services marketing on enhancing financial inclusion within the Iraqi banking sector, specifically addressing the gap between digital infrastructure investments and actual service adoption rates. Adopting a quantitative descriptive-analytical methodology, the research analyzes official secondary panel data from 2016 to 2025 across a sample of five leading Iraqi banks: Al-Rafidain, Al-Rasheed, Baghdad, International Development, and Iraqi Trade Bank. Multiple linear regression models with fixed effects and Granger causality tests were applied to test the hypotheses. The results reveal that digital marketing content quality is the most significant driver of financial inclusion (β = 0.71–0.77), followed by marketing intensity, whereas channel diversity showed no causal significance. The study identifies a critical "continuity gap," with customer retention rates not exceeding 64%, indicating a failure in post-acquisition strategies despite private sector growth reaching 153%. It concludes that educational-investment marketing outperforms promotional advertising in achieving sustainable inclusion. Recommendations include reallocating 70% of marketing budgets to educational content, adopting a focused digital model, and linking retention metrics to regulatory incentives.

Financial digital transformation is one of the most prominent changes affecting public financial management in the context of the rapid technological advancements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, particularly in e-banking. In an effort to improve the efficiency of financial management and achieve fiscal discipline, governments are increasingly using digital technologies to manage public revenues and expenditures, public debt, and the national budget, all in the pursuit of financial sustainability and economic stability. The study's findings indicate that Iraq witnessed a gradual improvement in digital transformation indicators and government digital participation during the period 2015–2024. However, integration among institutions remains limited, and participation in decision-making is still weak, reflecting the slow and incremental nature of financial digital transformation. Conversely, public finance indicators were characterized by fluctuations between deficits and surpluses, high public debt, and a volatile spending-to-GDP ratio, reflecting weak fiscal discipline and the reliance of fiscal policies on emergency situations such as dependence on oil revenues and economic crises. Therefore, these findings suggest that, with proper implementation, financial digital transformation can enhance fiscal discipline by improving financial planning, expenditure monitoring, and transparency, thereby ensuring financial stability and promoting long-term economic growth. The researcher recommends accelerating the full adoption of digital financial transformation in government institutions to improve fiscal discipline in Iraq. This includes increasing the transparency of financial management, using digital systems to track revenues and expenditures, and improving integration among various entities. To achieve financial stability and promote sustainable economic growth, this will help reduce spending, lower
the deficit, and manage national debt efficiently.

This study examines the challenges facing financial management in Iraq in light of digital transformation and the mechanisms for addressing them, as it represents a key approach to administrative reform and the enhancement of efficiency and transparency. The research aims to clarify the conceptual framework of digital transformation and its impact on the development of financial management functions, while analyzing the main technical, organizational, human, and legislative challenges that hinder its implementation in Iraqi financial institutions. The study is based on the hypothesis that the success of digital transformation in financial management depends on the integration of technical and legislative reforms along with capacity building. The findings indicate that digital transformation represents a strategic opportunity to modernize financial management; however, weak institutional readiness limits its effectiveness. The study recommends adopting a comprehensive national strategy focused on developing digital infrastructure, enhancing human capacities, and updating the legal framework to ensure the achievement of an efficient and sustainable digital financial management system

Life expectancy is considered an important indicator for measuring citizens' well-being, healthcare, and other services. This indicator is influenced by a range of variables, including economic, social, and political factors. The impact of these variables varies from country to country and from one period to another. For Iraq, which has experienced periods of crisis, political factors and related issues may influence life expectancy. Therefore, this research aims to measure the impact of political stability and the absence of violence, along with several other independent variables, on life expectancy from birth. The research relies on secondary data published by the World Bank. To measure this impact, the research employs the ARDL model using EViews 12 software. The research yielded several findings, including a significant positive impact of political stability, the absence of violence, and government efficiency on life expectancy, and a negative impact of military personnel and unemployment. The research suggests unifying political and social efforts to end external and internal conflicts and directing efforts toward the agricultural sector to produce healthy food for citizens.

The research problem lies in the fact that Iraq's upcoming demographic boom will create a large youth population, while the capacity of economic activities in both the public and private sectors to provide employment will decline. This will exacerbate the imbalance in educational outputs, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in the absence of proactive planning for educational outcomes, particularly in private education. The research adopts the hypothesis that the lack of a sound planning mechanism to align educational outputs, especially from private education, with the needs of the workforce for graduates has led to a decrease in the quality of learners and an increase in the number of graduates unqualified for employment needs. The importance of the research stems from analyzing the relationship between education and employment requirements amidst the worsening imbalance between labour supply and demand, which has led to a decline in the capacity to absorb large numbers of graduates. The research aims to offer proposals to reduce graduate unemployment, determine the extent to which the quantity and quality of graduates meet employment requirements in order to improve the quality of education, and propose appropriate solutions to the problems arising from the mismatch between private education and employment requirements. One of the most important conclusions of the research is the lack of studies that anticipate the capacity to employ graduates, meaning that the expansion of student admissions in private universities lacks the corresponding employment opportunities. One of the most important recommendations is the need to align the employment requirements of public and private sector institutions with the Central Admissions Department at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, by accepting the planned numbers of students submitted by public and private universities.

This research seeks to assess and examine the factors influencing Iraq's non-oil trade balance from 2004 to 2023. The study identifies the key macroeconomic variables influencing the trade balance, including exchange rate, GDP, foreign direct investment, inflation, public expenditures, international reserves, and population growth. Using the ARDL model and ECM for short- and long-run analysis. The results reveal a significant and long-term co-integrated relationship between these variables and the non-oil trade balance. The findings underscore the negative effects of inflation and public spending on the trade deficit, and highlight the positive role of FDI and international reserves in improving trade performance. The study concludes with policy recommendations for promoting economic diversification and reducing dependence on oil revenues.

The manufacturing sector is one of the most important economic sectors, as it contributes to providing job opportunities and achieving economic growth. However, this sector in Iraq suffers from major challenges, most notably the lack of investment, insufficient infrastructure, and weak competitive capabilities, which have affected the levels of growth and employment in this sector. This research aims to study the role of the manufacturing sector in Iraq and explore the weaknesses in the indicators of the manufacturing sector in Iraq that have contributed to the decline in the role of this sector in growth and employment. The research reached a main conclusion that the weakness of most indicators of the manufacturing sector led to a weak role of this sector in growth and employment. The research recommended the need to stimulate investments to modernize the infrastructure and improve technology to enhance growth and employment in the manufacturing sector.

This study aims to measure and analyze the quantitative relationship between non-oil GDP and the implications of financial support over the period (2004-2024). The study relied on a deductive analytical approach, using quantitative (standard) analytical methods to prove the research hypothesis and achieve its objective. The results showed that some forms of financial support, such as ration cards, social transfers, and agricultural support, have a direct and significant impact on non-oil GDP, reflecting the potential for these tools to stimulate economic growth outside the oil sector. The study also demonstrated that the impact of some variables is more pronounced in the long term than in the short term, such as the industrial and education sectors. This indicates the need to adopt development policies with a long-term perspective and a sustainable strategy for directing financial support

The study aimed to measure and analyze the interrelationship between public debt and some macroeconomic variables in Iraq during the period 2003-2023. These variables included public debt and some macroeconomic variables (public expenditures, broad money supply, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and foreign exchange rates), and to determine the nature of the relationship between these variables. The deductive approach and the quantitative approach were used for time series data collected from official and international sources, using the ARDL model to estimate the interrelationship between public debt and some macroeconomic variables in Iraq. The study reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is that there is a reciprocal relationship between public debt and each of the macroeconomic variables (public expenditures, broad money supply, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and foreign exchange rates). The study also showed that the relationship between public debt and each of (public expenditures, broad money supply, and exchange rate) is a direct relationship, while the study found that the relationship between public debt and each of (GDP and inflation rate) is an inverse relationship

This research aims to analyze the theoretical debate on monetary policy management strategies and the interrelationship between this theoretical debate and the reality of how central banks adopt strategies. It addresses the most prominent strategies used and the economic conditions that compel central banks to transition from one strategy to another. Several conclusions were reached, the most important of which is that central banks have tended toward adopting an inflation targeting strategy at a 2% inflation rate. This is what the Federal Reserve in the United States and the European Central Bank have adopted. The research also presents some recommendations, the most important of which is that if any central bank moves to an inflation targeting strategy, it needs to have a deep financial system so that interest rates can play their role in influencing economic activity through the interest rate channel.

Since 2003, the Iraqi economy has undergone significant transformations due to political, security, and economic changes. Inflation has emerged as one of the major economic challenges facing the country. Monetary policy plays a crucial role among macroeconomic policies, directly influencing economic activity by contributing to price stability and maintaining the purchasing power of the local currency. This study aims to examine the extent to which monetary policy instruments have affected inflation control during the period from 2003 to 2023, a phase marked by sharp economic fluctuations driven by both internal and external factors. The research employs a deductive approach to assess the impact of monetary policy tools in curbing inflation, alongside an inductive method to analyze inflation trends over time. The study reached several key findings, most notably that the Central Bank of Iraq’s purchases of foreign currency have had the most significant long-term effect in containing inflation. The study recommends that Iraq must reduce its reliance on oil revenues by diversifying its sources of income through the development of other sectors such as industry, agriculture, and tourism, in order to shield the economy from the volatility of oil prices.

The current study examined the banking environment in the Iraqi banking sector through three important variables. These variables are risk management and digital transformation as independent variables, which are considered among the most prominent and important topics for banking institutions, and banking efficiency as the dependent variable, which is one of the most prominent goals banks seek to achieve. Therefore, the study aimed to demonstrate the relationship and impact of risk management and digital transformation in enhancing banking efficiency, in light of the contemporary challenges facing banks, especially with regard to economic fluctuations and increasing competitive pressures. The study focused on the main question: What is the impact of risk management and digital transformation in enhancing banking efficiency? The study assumed the existence of a correlation and influence between both risk management and digital transformation in enhancing banking efficiency. To achieve the study objectives, the study hypotheses were tested in the Iraqi banking sector in general, for a period of 14 years extending from 2010 to 2023. The study relied on annual data obtained from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Iraq, which was employed in financial analysis and statistical analysis by using various statistical programs such as SPSS 26, multiple linear regression, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the Durbin-Watson test. The study came out with a set of results, the most prominent of which is that the indicators of risk management and digital transformation contribute significantly to explaining changes in banking efficiency, as the model explains more than 83% of the variance in this variable.

This study aims to examine the impact of the financial performance of private banks on the stock prices of these banks traded on the Iraq Stock Exchange. It focuses on analyzing financial performance indicators and measuring their contribution to explaining changes in the average annual closing price as a market value indicator. The study was applied to the Bank of Baghdad for the period 2016–2023 using financial and statistical analysis methods. The findings indicate that improved financial performance enhances investor confidence, positively reflecting on stock prices. The study recommends improving operational efficiency in banks, as it directly contributes to strengthening financial performance and increasing stock market value

This research aims to analyze the developmental role of the health sector using sustainable development indicators. The descriptive-analytical approach was adopted. The sample countries were Denmark and Saudi Arabia. Denmark's economy was found to be significantly superior to the global standard in terms of sustainable development indicators. As for the Saudi economy, it achieved developmental rates in some indicators, and this improvement is attributed to economic development. Regarding the Iraqi economy, a significant conclusion was reached: it suffers from a shortage of medical personnel, particularly doctors. Internationally, the ratio of doctors per 1,000 people is measured, with the ratio in Iraq reaching 1.0, while the global standard is 1.7 in 2023. The research concluded with an important recommendation: the necessity of focusing on health investment, as productive spending leads to the accumulation of human capital, increases production and productivity, achieves economic development, and contributes to the development of other economic sectors.

This article examines the trajectory of sustainable development in Iraq during 2026, drawing attention to the significant discrepancy between officially reported carbon figures and the empirical findings of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. Results indicate that the actual carbon intensity of the electricity sector reaches 831 g CO₂/kWh once gas-flaring emissions are incorporated—a figure 40% higher than the officially declared 592 g. The study further documents a structural water crisis manifested in a 40% decline in Tigris-Euphrates inflows since 2020, producing an annual water deficit of 40 billion cubic metres. In response, the article proposes an integrated three-track roadmap encompassing immediate institutional reforms, medium-term regional partnerships, and long-term structural transitions aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals 6, 7, and 13.

Entrepreneurial behaviour is a key indicator not only of individual growth but also of economic growth, offering important solutions to the problem of unemployment worldwide. The shift towards a digital economy is one of the most important drivers that has contributed to reshaping the business environment in our world today. Digital technologies have created new opportunities for entrepreneurs to offer innovative and new projects, products, and services in more flexible and efficient ways. Therefore, entrepreneurial behaviour has become closely linked to digital technology, contributing to the emergence of new business models based on innovation and rapid response to modern market conditions and demands

This study aims to analyze the impact of economic crisis management on the stability of the Iraqi business environment amid economic challenges related to oil dependency and instability. The study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach based on recent literature and international reports. The findings indicate that economic crises negatively affect the business environment by increasing risks and reducing investment. Moreover, effective crisis management helps mitigate these impacts by enhancing economic stability and policy efficiency. The study emphasizes the need for adopting effective crisis management strategies and economic diversification to achieve a stable business environment