JOURNAL OF ADMINISTRATION AND ECONOMICS

This paper addresses the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices , in real market and financial sector. In order to prepare the analytical background for further investigation, it highlights the patterns of correlations of the real oil price and the most related prices of assets, exchange rate and government bond yield. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil price, quantities and the global macroeconomic environment. Topics discussed include the theory of differential rent and scarcity effect , the role of future market and speculation, strategies of energy of the major economies to investigate the prospects of oil market and the potential demand for OPEC's oil. The paper explores the interrelationship between spot and future prices using daily data , explanatory power of real effective exchange rate in addition to conventional demand and supply functions. Although, The paper finds regularities consistent with the predictions of economic theory, it concludes that the changes in real price of oil have historically tended to be difficult to predict. Further research works are recommended particularly in the areas of storage arbitrage and financial future contracts.

Analysis of Unemployment Trends in Iraq, and Ways to Remedy it.
The research studies the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq, and identifying its rates and directions, after 2003, and the classification of unemployment according to the age, the sex, the environment and the economic activity rates, according to surveys of employment and unemployment by the Central Bureau of statistics in 2003, 2006 and 2008.
Iraq has faced the unemployment problem through the nineties (the period of the economic embargo), furthermore, the decline of oil exports, the shortage of revenue, the lack of foreign currency, and the breakdown of many development projects, has led to a growth in the number of unemployed, the research hypothesis, That Iraq was subjected to different types of unemployment, especially in the category of young people under the age of 25 because of low rates of economic growth and distort the economic environment after the 2003 . Research aims to identify the unemployment rates in Iraq of various types and rates of economic activity compared with unemployment rates , The research reached there is no link between workforce planning and planning education and training activity in all its stages and levels, the research recommends the adoption of different policies and procedures to create new employment opportunities and reducing the intensity of crisis.

The study reached the conclusion that failure of the tax system in Iraq and the inability to resbond to changes in economic, social and twice the efficiency of the tax administration and failure of the methods adopted in the process of settling accounts tax, the reality of tax in Iraq is low and not flexible, fair and transparent not match with the speeifications of the tax system good.
Thus as aresult and the cause of th weakness at the same time to achieve and cheek investment and economic development.
And a recommendation basic study should be carried out of the reform process in all the episodes of the tax system of tax administration

The Iraqi economy had experienced and faced a hard economical circumstances because of the high downfall for the spending price of Iraqi dinar during nineties and eighties to the past century . this case caused the rising of inflation rates and the emergence of dealing with dollar as well as the trade with estates end foreign currencies especially during nineties after the downfall of Iraqi currency and the fluctuation of Iraqi currency in favor of foreign currencies.
But after the year of the 2003 and the independence of the Iraq central bank in using his own tools in addition with the issuance of the law no.56 at the year of 2004 which helped a lot in using new tools in the monetary policy and raised with stability for the value of Iraqi dinar in the market. From these new tools is the foreign currency which the Iraqi central bank succeeded through it raise the value of Iraqi dinar in ratio of 38% than it was at the year 2003 and made the stability against the dollar as a result the people increased the request to keep and save the Iraqi dinar, then the Iraqi bank used the exchange rate sign as a tool to fix and limit

Risk is a one of important dimensions in investment decision, according to risk level investors take their decisions to arrange financial assets to choose the best one within the framework of the return and risk relationship.
Multiple scales have been developed to risk assessment that focus on different dimensions. This requires selecting the appropriate scale of risks in order to make the right decisions.
The study aims to determine the effect of using the standard deviation measures, skewers and downside risk in arrange financial assets. The results showed that the scales lead to different options, as risky assets arrangement varies according to each scale.
The results show that the measures lead to different choices because the variation of ranking the assets, according to each measure.
The study also reach to conclusion that downside measure were more in line with the orientations of investors and their awareness of the risk and therefore the possibility of making more accurate decisions regarding investment in financial assets .

Today's global economy is heading toward the adoption of the knowledge economy , which his basic tool are knowledge workers. and business organizations that seek to attract and adoption aware of their importance as well as a link their jobs to Organisational Innovation . The field resarch problem was the extent of adoption of knowledge workers and highlight their role in achieving Organisational innovation in the Iraqi Commission for Computers and Informatics , Based on this problem has been to build a model for research and supposedly has two basic formulation of hypotheses, The questionnaire was adopted as a tool to collect data and information relating to research after he was subjected to tests of validity and reliability, And distributed to a random sample of 116 individuals of staf in Commission, and to analyze the research data used statistical Ready (SPSS)and (Excel) programs. The most important statistical methods used in the analysis were ( mean, standard deviation , coefficient of variation , and the correlation coefficient Spearman and simple linear regression).
The results showed the existence of significant correlation between the knowledge and Organisational innovation, and the significant effect of the knowledge in innovation workers Organisational innovation, making knowledge workers the most important sources to achieve Organisational innovation in the researched commission, under the dynamic environment in which it works, that requires them to increase the interest and adoption the knowledge workers .
Kew word : knowledge, knowledge economy, knowledge workers, Organazational Innovation

The research aims to assess the efficiency of the performance of the scientific departments at technical collage of management / Baghdad, using data envelopment analysis technique.To achieve its goals, used a case study approach and the data envelopment analysis model (CCR) was implemented by using (Excel, 2007) to determine the efficiency of scientific departments in (2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2011-2012). The search demonstrated that the ability of data envelopment analysis technique to assess the scientific departments performance compared with the best peers , and the college don’t give assessing process the required attention, That would have negative impact on development their inputs, performance and outcomes in which reflect on the level of scientific and research work in the college .

The study aimed to identify the re-engineering of business and its impact on job satisfaction. To achieve the objectives of the study, it was formulated some hypotheses, as has been designed a questionnaire identified for this purpose and distributed to a sample of workers in the first class hotels (Mansour and Ishtar) and by (40) forms. After raising the theoretical aspects, the data, obtained from the field, has been analyzed using some descriptive statistical methods (means, standard deviations, weighted percentages) and the use of factor analysis, which helped to reach a set of results that led to a set of conclusions, which was one of the most prominent of them there is a relationship for business re-engineering with significant influence in achieve the job satisfaction. In light of the conclusions, proposals were submitted which are consistent with these conclusions.

educational services required to be provided inclved general Nurseries, Kindergartens, primary school, middle school, high school, Vocational Schools and technical institutes have been measuring the Efficiency of this function educational city of Mosul, in this research Through the use of some of the indicators of the number of students in The school and the number of the people and the number of teachers For age groups designated that have been identified where the age Group (4-5) years of education pre-school (kindergarten) and age group (6-12) years Primary school age group (13-18) years to study high school And then compare these indicators with the standards at the country Level to estimate the efficiency of educational services to reach the planned targets in the field of education system.

The research aims to test the relation and effect of the leadership of creativity with enriching the life of employees. The research was done in Iraqi Ministry of Transportation's affiliated companies, which is considered one of the important service organizations. The necessary information for the research were obtained from a special questionnaire, prepared by the researcher, after getting the views (171) of director general, director and head of section. Number of analystic static methods was used to measure the relation of relevance and slope analytic, between the leadership creativity with enriching the employee's life.
The researcher reached, through the analytic operation, to a number of essential conclusions that there is a relation between the leadership creativity with enriching the employee's life, and also there is a significant influence between them
The researcher reached to a number of proper proposals and recommendations that can be taken into consideration in the organization, where the research has been done

This study aims to identify the efforts of international bodies and domestic anti-money laundering operations, and to identify the content of the anti-money laundering, and those who applied and how mandatory application, and to identify guidelines for issued by professional bodies to check on anti-money laundering, and the commitment of the auditorJordanian audit of this program and to achieve the objectives of the study used approach descriptive analysis by identifying prepared for this purpose and distributed to a sample of auditors and through the use of appropriate statistical techniques, the study found some conclusions from them, achieved auditor accounts of the development and management of programs to ensure the commitment of banks instructions combating money laundering, through the examination of the internal control system and verify that the bank's policies in line with anti-money laundering programs. during the development of criteria for accepting new customers and exception rules, and the existence of records found new customers and new accounts and suspicious accounts

The study focused on accounting for financial risks faced by banks because they are exposed to a high level of risk as a result of their great utilization of financial instruments, which may make them liable to insolvency or bankruptcy and collapse, and accordingly to major economic crises. Therefore, banks are required to manage (reduce) risks so as to evade them. Due to Iraqi banks inaction to properly manage these risks, as well as lack of both the standard accounting system for banks and the Iraqi accounting criterion (standard) No. 10 to an obvious methodology for these risks identification, classification, hedging and disclosure, the researcher was prompted to concentrate on this problem to be solved. Consequently, the study aims to shows importance of financial reporting for financial derivatives as instruments to hedge against banking risks according to the international accounting standards.

It is possible to consider the profit from different views depending on the purpose which it is used for. It is sometimes a measure of how successful a management is in managing the resources of a business unit in realizing its goals . It is also used by potential investors in taking investment decisions. However, these and other uses of profits are performed by adopting profits number as if it is never mistaken or misled by the management of a business unit so as to show the profits with the best possible image
, Based on that This research aims at indicating the significance of the profits quality in enhancing the investors' decisions in the Iraqi financial market, and the factors that influence the profits quality, considering them indicators supporting the profit quality standards. This is by measuring the quality of profits of a sample in question according to unordinary benefits, continuity of profits, predictability of profits, measuring the correlation between these standards and the variation in profits; as the key goal of an investor is to realize profits. In order to examine the factors influencing the quality of profits, we have measured the correlation coefficient between each factor and each standard of quality of profits.
The study concluded that the investor in the Iraqi stock market does not take into consideration the quality of earning when taking investment decisions. The necessity consideration earning quality when taking investment decisions and The size of a business unit and fluctuation in revenues play an important role in influencing the quality of earning .

A lot of the developed countries depen in economy on the hospitality industry, has occupied the industry in recent great niche in the economy of many countries , especially those that lack the resources and other economic elements , it is the industry without chimneys and importance in creating investment opportunities
That the success of organizations, hotel and that is the main part in the hospitality industry depends on the extent of the available accounting information , so This research seeks to statement and the role of accounting information in the pricing of hotel services on a sample of hotels Iraqi , and research has included a field study on hotels in Baghdad and other provinces Iraqi and through the questionnaire were analyzed their answers , as research has come to a set of conclusions , including :
1 - Analysis of the questionnaire results proved the existence of a correlation statistically significant between accounting information and planning and control pricing
2 - Use one policy for the pricing and lack of attention to the reactions of customers and not taking new pricing policy
3 - Tracking the vast majority of Iraqi hotel pricing services by modifying the previous price of the service and not on the foundations of modern pricing

Engineering of Accounting and strengthening it crwative s role in the creative economic units .
The research aims to highlight the role of accounting strategic and effective in creating the creativity and innovation of thought accounting, and there are many financial methods adopted accounting checks in which an improvement in the level of performance and promote the development of economic units in the market by creating a competitive advantage without being expensive represented in engineering Checkout to contribute to the optimal use of available financial resources. And for the achievement of these objectives has been formulated the hypothesis of the research to the effect that creativity and innovation accounting linked using accountant Hensh accounting in the analysis and formulation of strategies for the financial schemes with the adoption of technology as an essential and necessary for the management of financial innovation Vtaazem skills and intellectual capacity of Accountants increase their contribution to evaluate the results of the implementation of the financial plans and contribute to the decision-making that enhance the competitive advantage of enterprises through acquisition ingredients for success in the market.
The Engineering of Accounting can provide effective help to achieve the strategic objectives planned by the economic units, Engineering accounting is not limited role only to reduce the costs of the activities carried out, but also the development and innovation of new financial products and services and innovative solutions to the problems facing economic units in addition to the risks faced by these units.

It has been known that the oil in Iraq is the backbone and the lifeblood of the Iraqi economy , after the decline in other sectors (of industry ,agriculture,ز…..,etc.) in the percentage of its contribution to the financing of the economy , the role of the oil sector because more important due to the circumstances that have past and still in our country,so we must contribute in the development of strategic planning , forecasting to put a comprehensive analysis and accurate to the reality and the future of this sector ,The most important phases of the oil industry and the goals of each stage has been identified then the theoretical and the practical point views were discussed on the basis of data that has been taken from the site of the Iraqi oil ministry from the south oil and Missan .
The data of the study has been analysised according to Multiv-
ariate method and time series method , therefore forecasting model and others have been built .The model (ARMAX(1,0,1)) showed its realability depending on statistics measure of the series production of oil in the south industries also on the variable production of gas as a factor in determining the production quantity in this region .By depending on the Multivariate method , the number of explain variable has been reduced to one variable depending on the method of principle component analysis with a high rate of interpretation.

In this research how to use the method of Estimator will be illustrated for estimate parameter of exponential distribution and compare it with the ML method and Bayes method Depending on the inverse Gamma as the prior distribution for parameter of exponential distribution. The simulation was adopted in the comparison between the estimation methods. The simulation results showed that method Testimator is the best for all the default values for the exponential distribution parameter and all the different sample sizes.
Keyword: Exponential distribution, ML estimator, Testimator, chi-square test, Bayes estimator, Inverse Gamma distribution, MSE.

Water is a good solvent for the chemicals so the water rivers contain many chemicals dissolved makes them unacceptable or unsuitable for human use. Due to the Importance of water in the life of living organisms and especially of man which is the goal that the state seeks to provide gook service to him for that is located on state responsibility note and adjust the rates of the composition of water from chemicals and biological that these ratios acceptable compared to international specifications and observing their impact on public health . based on the multiplicity and diversity of water sources in Iraq and the impact of the quality of water processed for each province has been used cluster analysis for the purpose of classification of the governorates of Iraq , according to indicators of convergence in the chemical composition of water used for each province and reach the appropriate classification for the purpose of the study and decision making.

The research includes the comparison of three methods to time series analysis and find forecasting values to use for comparison among these methods by use many measures for example mean square error and another, After diagnosis the models by many criterion such as Akaikes Information Criteria(AIC),And these methods Box & Jenkins, Winters' Multiplicative, and Holt- Winters' Additive Method.

This paper is concerned with problem of comparing different estimators of reliability function of two parameters Lomax distribution where is ( ( shape parameter and is scale parameter and then comparing the efficiency of the estimators which are maximum likelihood ,median,Bayes by using Jeffery prior with quadratic loss function and extended Bayes by using Jeffery prior. The comparison was done using simulation procedure with different sample size and values of parameters ,on the bases of simulation experiment we conclude that the extended Bayes by using Jeffery prior method with quadratic loss function was the best method for small values of parameters and maximum likelihood for large values of parameter and that's true for all values of sample sizes.

This study has addressed the environmental pollution, which represents the most important obstacle to the development of tourist positions, because of the degradation it causes and the reduction in its hypothetical life, it Became a phenomenon that does not bound by boundaries, but included all the countries of the world whether these countries are known for their natural or cultural tourism position, they took their share of damages of environmental pollution.
This study took up on it to find out its causes and results and how to treat them, and theoretically took up the treatment through eco-tourism; the (new) phenomenon which is (outmoded) in existence, in order to serve the interests of tourist positions which suffers greatly of different kinds of problems especially the increase in the capacity of positions due to mass tourism distributed in the current time.
This study has showed the types of pollution existed, whether natural or human ones, the most prominent theoretical results that has emerged to the study is the weak environmental awareness among the citizens in the study area and that the environmental balance is necessary for the continuation of the ecosystem ,whether it was for humans or animals and plants. The modern trend of the majority of eco-countries the is use of eco – tourism in order to maintain the continuity of tourist offers in tourist positions

The research deals with a problem that faces the managements of The luxurious big hotels of five stars in Baghdad which cowed be evident through the following questions:
1- Do the managements of the concerned hotels analyze the competitive forces of their industry services ?
2- On which level of hotel service the hotel management concentrate in the process of competing themselves?
3- Do the managements of the concerned hotels try to build a long-term marketing relationship with their guests through the force of salivating themselves in the market they work in?
The research aims at achieving the following goals:
1- knowing the extent of applicability of Porter special model concerning the five competing forces and the possibility of applying it in the hotel industry in Iraq.
2- Limiting the level of the hotel service which is emphasized in the competition process more than the other level.
3- Evaluating the marketing situation of these hotels and their services and the status they have in the minds and conceptions of the guests.
And in order to find a solution to the problem and to achieve their goals the research adopts eventual model by which it limits the independent and responsive variables. A group of main and minor hypotheses are chosen by using the statistical programme (SPSS) . The society of the study consists of the (Five stars) big hotels in Baghdad city . The sample consists of (45) managers and administrative and technical decision makers and it uses the questionnaire form as an instrument for collecting and analyzing data.
The research reaches many conclusions the most important of which are:
1- the management of hotels subjected to study take in consideration the importance of analyzing the competitive forces and their impact on the hotel-service industry and the possibility of applying Porter model in the Iraq industrial environment.
2- the management of the concerned hotels focus on the second level of the hotel service in the process of competition.
3- the management of the hotels ,their services and their trade mark enjoy a good reputation and a good status in the minds and conceptions of their guests.
The study ends with the following recommendations:
1- It is necessary that hotel focus on their competition on the three levels and give the third level the enhanced product-a superiority in the competition.
2- Management of hotels should adopt a philosophy in managing the customer relationship CRM because it is the one through which they can achieve the strategic objective of their hotels. [

Human resources are very important element in tourism development, for tourism sector depends on special human resources in introducing the services, different services to different people from different countries, and from this point we need the language and more than one language in order to understand the guest who is coming from foreign country, in that way we can introduce best quality of services, and the first impression is very important when the guest feels comforted when he find many of the workers knew his language, so when the guest need anything else we can understand him easily also we can knew what he need right now and what the needs in the future.
The language is very important for the employee because it help them to get more information through reading in many languages or using the internet and knowing the recent developments in tourism hospitality, best methods of introducing services, the tradition of many countries, what they like and what they hate, what they wish and what they need, these details are very important because this provides qualifying the employees in the hospitality sector with language skills will definitely result in developing the quality of the services he offers to the guests, knowing the language of guest makes it easily to communicate with him and attract him.

The markets of the world are witnessing in recent years a lot of the successive technological developments and that would create a new version of the work and practices and even attitudes and philosophies adopted by business organizations, the hotel now, has become the e-commerce and the associated concepts such as e-marketing is the language of the times and the laissez-passer for a large number of Goods and services provided by these organizations to cross into the domestic or world markets, also worked communications network known as the Internet on the open field in front of the guests all over the world to learn about the different organizations and products offered, regardless of the geographical location of both, resulting in ease of doing another form of marketing and shopping for hotel organizations in the era of negotiations, whether between individuals or nations or peoples, since all aspects of life is a series of negotiating positions. The flag shows the power and importance of the negotiation, which derives from the relationship existing between the parties negotiating.